Many remain skeptical that such a breakthrough can materialise, though it is clear that international pressure, especially from the United States, continues unabated. It is believed that both Yerevan and Washington hope to have an agreement signed before the U.S. presidential elections on 5 November and especially by COP29 just days later.
Though its policy could change if the incumbent U.S. administration was to lose power, Armenia still appears eager to continue its diversification away from Moscow. On 31 August, Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards departed Yerevan’s Zvartnots International Airport. Earlier this month, it was also announced that next year they will be withdrawn from the checkpoint on the Iranian border, following a bilateral meeting held in Moscow between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Crucially, however, Russian border guards will not be withdrawn from the actual Iranian and Turkish borders, though they will be joined by an unknown number of Armenian National Security Service (NSS) guards. Even so, disagreement between Yerevan and Baku on the unblocking of regional transportation and communication, especially restoration of the Soviet-era link between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave, continues, as does the rivalry between Moscow and Washington over the route even though it has been removed from the treaty itself.
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But the processes do continue and on 18 October, the latest meeting of the 3+3 regional platform, effectively 3+2 with Tbilisi still refusing to participate, the Armenian, Azerbaijani, Iranian, Russian and Turkish foreign ministers will meet in Istanbul. Meanwhile, on 15 October, the Armenian government revealed that, while in Moscow for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) meeting of leaders a week earlier, Pashinyan had proposed that the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers should meet for two days of talks to agree on some of the outstanding points in a bilateral agreement before COP29 in Baku.
Before then, Aliyev, Erdogan, Pashinyan and Putin are expected to participate in the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, next week. This makes the days and weeks ahead before COP29 very critical indeed.
The full piece is available here.
