Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled plans to seek European Union (EU) membership. Though framed as an attempt to diversify away from decades of dependency on Russia, Moscow instead sees it as a western attempt to simply oust it from the region. Such a move is supported by some in Armenia amid disillusionment with Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) following the 2020 war with Azerbaijan and a 2022 incursion into Armenia itself.
Nonetheless, diversification is long overdue in the country though it hardly had any choice. Only in the area of security has Yerevan found itself desperate to seek alternative partners given Russia’s beleaguered situation in Ukraine. It has always been Armenia’s geography that obstructs diversification in general, especially economically, but also in terms of security. Indian weapons are presumably transported through Iran.
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Regardless, in lieu of a peace agreement, support from the EU for Pashinyan, whose ratings have been in decline, could help ensure victory. The same is true if support comes from the United States as well. Earlier this month, Yerevan signed a historic Strategic Partnership Commission Charter with Washington D.C.. This institutionalised framework for cooperation between the two countries is also important in terms of diversification in the area of nuclear energy.
But diversification should not be mistaken for replacing Russian hegemony for that from the West. In the midst of this web of geopolitical interests, Pashinyan noted at last week’s World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos that equilibrium in Armenia’s foreign relations is vital for both national and regional stability. “Deviation from balance can have very serious consequences,” he warned, while also acknowledging that Armenia’s economic future depends on normalising relations with neighbours Azerbaijan and Turkey and deepening those with Iran and Georgia.
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