Opinion: Armenia Close To The Brink

Jun 27, 2025

Opposition Protest, Liberty Square, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2007

Bagrat Galstanyan, the hardline cleric who led street protests against the start of border demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and called for the resignation or impeachment of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, has been placed in pre-trial detention for two months. More than a dozen others have also been detained, with that number expected to rise. They are accused of plotting a coup ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections, following the publication by pro-Pashinyan media of an alleged seven-page document detailing the plan.

Audio recordings, allegedly featuring Bagrat Galstanyan, describe actions ranging from civil disobedience to acts of terrorism. While MPs from the ruling Civil Contract party claim Galstanyan has admitted the voice is his, the controversial cleric denies any such confirmation. The National Security Service (NSS) has also released photographs of alleged weapons caches. However, opposition figures have noted that many of the seized items are legally registered hunting rifles, and the ammunition shown includes spent shotgun shells.

 

[…]

 

Additional doubts and questions have also surfaced. In the document published online by a pro-Pashinyan outlet, the opening sentence was crudely redacted using a simple strip of white paper. However, photographs released by the National Security Service (NSS) reveal that the concealed text dates the alleged coup between late June and late September of last year. This contradicts earlier claims by government officials and pro-government media, who had presented the plot as being planned for this year.

 

[…]

 

As has been clear for some time, the 2026 elections are likely to be existential in nature. At stake is not just the future of all those involved but also the country’s geopolitical orientation and relationship with its neighbours, particularly Azerbaijan and Turkiye. It is likely that more arrests will follow while the political temperature rises closer to boiling point. What little social cohesion remains in the country will be tested to the limit. And with neither the government nor the opposition commanding large support, many will be left in-between.

The full piece is available here.

 

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