This month marked the third anniversary of the ceasefire statement that was meant to end the second Karabakh war. In retrospect, it might be more appropriately considered a continuation of the first conflict of the early 1990s given that the ceasefire then was hardly implemented too, leading to a new war 26 years later. Meanwhile, hopes that Baku and Yerevan could sign a peace agreement are fading.
A deal was possible by the end of the year, both sides pronounced in 2022 and again throughout 2023, but that sounded as vague and sometimes disingenuous then as it does now. Instead, an uncanny sense of deja vu hangs over the process, reminiscent of earlier failures by the now defunct OSCE Minsk Group.
“There is a possibility of a Karabakh settlement in the course of this year,” then U.S. co-chair of the Minsk Group Steve Mann told journalists in 2005 before correcting himself. A peace deal could be signed “this year or within the next hundred,” he said, perhaps sarcastically. That feeling has now returned with even the U.S. admitting that it is pointless to predict when an agreement might come.
Baku is concerned that Yerevan is playing for time while Armenia fears that Azerbaijan prefers to soldier on with its so far successful policy of coercive diplomacy. Both sides have consistently engaged in forum shopping.
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Yet, if there ever was ever a role for salaried NGOs in conflict resolution then this would be it. Unless they too have no real desire for peace, of course. Finally, Brussels should also be cognisant of the need to be considered a neutral mediator by all sides and avoid the temptation to engage in geopolitical confrontation and competition with regional powers that will surely react harshly in response.
With the 30th anniversary of the 1994 ceasefire also upon us next year, the stakes are high. Suffice to say, a tangible breakthrough by the end of 2023 remains vital for all hope going forwards. Otherwise, like much of the world, the mediators will instead be preoccupied by Ukraine, Gaza, the U.S. presidential vote, and any other cataclysmic global event that might unexpectedly appear out of nowhere.
Three years on, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in that situation before.
The full opinion piece can be read here.
