Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates © Onnik James Krikorian 2015
Depending on whom you ask, last week’s meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Abu Dhabi was either a historic development or simply another routine step in the still-fragile peace process. In an interview with Slovak media prior to the talks last week, Azerbaijani presidential advisor Hikmet Hajiyev even claimed the conflict between the sides is now over. Both sides believed that they were now the closest to formalising a peace treaty than at any time before.
Some in Armenia might disagree, but the United States and European Union also see that an agreement is in reach. For Yerevan, however, the signing of the text for such a treaty, finalised in March, is not close enough. Armenia still remains overly dependent on Russia while its border with Turkiye remains closed. Some pro-Pashinyan pundits even appeal to U.S. President Donald Trump’s vanity, attempting to coax him into pressuring Ankara and possibly Baku too with the allure of a possible Nobel Peace Prize if that changes.
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Some analysts in Azerbaijan have suggested that it might be possible to sign an agreement, though not ratify it, as long as there is a clear timescale for holding a referendum on this. Unless this issue can be resolved, both Azerbaijani and some Armenian observers believe, the 5-hour meeting was therefore more likely to focus on discussing all outstanding points and perhaps even prepare the ground for new initiatives to propel the process forwards. If not close, then consensus is that the sides are at least much closer.
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In the end, however, few expected more. But that it took place is already positive, especially as delegations comprising the most important officials involved in the process also took part. Nonetheless, what really matters is what happens next and when. On Monday this week, Pashinyan’s Deputy Chief of Staff told media that the “parentheses” on what was discussed “will be opened a little” and “whether there is consensus on some issues.”
The full piece is available here.
