Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso Transeuropa has published my piece on last week’s unprecedented bilateral statement issued by Armenia and Azerbaijan that saw an agreement on Baku hosting the 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) and an undertaking to exchange prisoners held by both.
Despite concerns that even a framework agreement to normalise relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan would not come by the end of this year, an unexpected joint statement issued by Baku and Yerevan late last Thursday, 7 December, has sparked optimism that this could still happen. The two countries fought a devastating 44-day war three years ago, but a peace deal has so far remained elusive.
Though joint statements are not new, they had always been issued as part of trilateral talks either facilitated or mediated by Russian President Vladimir Putin or European Council President Charles Michel. This time, however, the statement was issued bilaterally by the Armenian Prime Minister’s Office and the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration with no third-party involved.
The development is particularly significant given the impasse in the Michel-facilitated Brussels Process, with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev pulling out of EU-mediated talks in Granada and Brussels in October, and Yerevan rejecting offers of Russian-hosted talks as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan increasingly turns westwards.
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Nonetheless, until it becomes known whether Armenia and Azerbaijan will return to bilateral or trilateral talks, the joint statement has at least encouraged those hopeful for an agreement to come soon. For now, that remains unclear. Speaking on Armenian Public TV on Saturday, Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan could only say that a deal could come “by the end of the year… or as soon as possible”.
The same was expected at the end of last year.
The full article is available in English and Italian.
