© fifg/Shutterstock
A few days ago, Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso Transeuropa published my latest on the recent tensions on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. However, some argue, they also represent the possibility that negotiations on Yerevan-Baku peace treaty might come to fruition. Most others disagree, of course, but the situation can perhaps be best described as unclear.
Azerbaijan has announced the establishment of a border post on the Lachin corridor – a significant development in the aftermath of the 2020 Karabakh war. The installation of the post on 23 April represents another assertion of sovereignty by Azerbaijan not only on the strategic land route from Armenia but also on the besieged breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh to which it connects..
The step also poses additional challenges and implications for Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian population as mediation efforts appear to falter. This follows over 133 days of travel along the road being seriously restricted by what is claimed to be an environmental protest by Azerbaijani activists. Only the Russian peacekeeping contingent and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have used the route since.
.
Baku charges that the highway, along with an alternative route only recently confirmed, was being used for “the rotation of personnel of Armenian armed forces that continue to be illegally stationed in the territory of Azerbaijan, the transfer of weapons and ammunition, entrance of terrorists, as well as illicit trafficking of natural resources.”
Yerevan denies the claims.
The installation of an Azerbaijani post on the strategic highway, however, had long been anticipated and can also be linked to the lack of progress on unblocking regional transport and communication routes in the region, as per the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire statement. Both the Lachin Corridor and a land link between Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan via Armenia were included, but disagreement over border and customs controls frustrated progress on the second.
[…]
Some, however, believe that the checkpoint highlights the need for a resolution to the conflict. “The events […] on the Lachin corridor indicate that we are now moving on from the Ceasefire Agreement”, tweeted Tim Potier, a Tufts University International Law professor. “It is too early to be sure, but I believe that these events mean Armenia and Azerbaijan are closer to signing a peace treaty, not further away”.
Yet, few others share that optimism and many warn that Karabakh is likely to experience further depopulation amid an increasingly uncertain and unpredictable future. There is nonetheless at least consensus among international actors that the conflict must be resolved, though how remains unclear.
The full article can be read here.
