Uncertainty has again emerged along the Armenia-Iran border as the risk of the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan turning into further geopolitical competition continues. What was once a post-war localised disagreement over territory and sovereignty is now entangled in a web of regional interests and strategic manoeuvring. Increasingly, peace risks being shaped less by the needs of local populations but more by the calculations of distant capitals. External interference has rather delayed progress almost five years since the 2020 war. If peace is the objective, then the region needs inclusive not selective diplomacy and definitely not new geopolitical fault lines.
Following a massive Israeli bombing campaign, last month’s U.S. airstrikes on nuclear facilities in Iran were a stark reminder that the South Caucasus is never far from escalation. For Armenia, this should be cause for concern, not because of the ethnic Azerbaijani population living across the border in northern Iran, but due to its semi-isolation in the region. While Georgia remains its main route to the outside world, Iran is the only other. Despite religious differences, relations between mainly Christian Armenia and majority Shia Iran have been amicable. That matters, especially as some diaspora activists now use divisive religious narratives in an endless propaganda war with their Azerbaijani counterparts.
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The reported U.S. proposal to lease Armenia’s southern border only adds fuel to an already unpredictable situation. Former U.S. diplomat and OSCE Minsk Group co-chair Matthew Bryza maintains that this is more commercial than geopolitical, characteristic of Trump’s transactional business-orientated tendency but others remain skeptical. Iran has made its opposition clear, again warning against any change in the geopolitical situation on its border with Armenia. Currently the 43-kilometre route, directly adjacent to the Arax river, is still patrolled by Russian FSB border guards where they have been present since 1992. Only this year were they were removed from the actual checkpoint.
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Still, there may be room for progress. At the recent Abu Dhabi summit between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the sides stated they would form new bilateral commissions. Perhaps this is where they can begin – with honest, direct engagement on infrastructure, sovereignty, and security without the imposition of outside agendas. Regional consultation will also be necessary, not just for today but especially for the future.
The full piece is available here.
