The Armenian delegation (left) meeting with its Azerbaijani counterpart (right) yesterday at Blair House in Washington D.C. via Azerbaijani MFA on Twitter.
For many, the significance of yesterday’s bilateral meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, appears to have been overlooked. Instead, all attention was focused on the later meeting of the two state officials with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Though important, the preparation of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan has actually been assigned to the Foreign Ministers in a bilateral format and not to one with the direct involvement of any external actors.
This was announced by European Council President Charles Michel after the 31 August facilitated meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Brussels. Of course, that the bilateral meeting in Washington D.C. was hosted by the U.S. State Department and upon the initiative of Secretary of State Blinken is not insignificant either, but also follows a similar meeting held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly on 19 September.
However, it is what was discussed during the bilateral between Mirzoyan and Bayramov that is arguably more important. Indeed, Blinken himself hinted as much in his opening remarks to the trilateral meeting with the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers held afterwards.
“Direct dialogue is the best way to a truly durable peace, and we are very pleased to support that,” he said. Blinken also reaffirmed the importance of recognising the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Armenia and Azerbaijan, something that has become a key element of the meetings between the foreign ministers in Geneva as well the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Prague on 6 October and in Sochi at the end of the same month. Of note too are remarks tweeted by EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar.
Important meeting yesterday between 🇦🇲and 🇦🇿foreign Ministers in Washington. It is encouraging that @AraratMirzoyan and @Bayramov_Jeyhun are engaged in a substantive process of negotiations for a bilateral peace treaty.
— Toivo Klaar (@ToivoKlaar) November 8, 2022
Nonetheless, Blinken’s remarks before the trilateral meeting that, like the bilateral discussion held earlier the same day, was held behind closed doors were to the point.
I think it’s also fair to say that 30-plus years of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh have had tremendous human, material costs – lives lost, scars that are deep. But what we are seeing now are real steps, and courageous steps, by both countries to put the past behind and to work toward a durable peace. Both countries are working to that end and to, ultimately, a brighter future for the South Caucasus – a future of peace, countries at peace, countries working together for a better future.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov (left), U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan (right) yesterday at Blair House in Washington D.C.. It was the second such meeting in this trilateral format. via Armenian MFA on Twitter
To the disappointment of many, however, very little details emerged from either the bilateral and trilateral meetings for which the Armenian and Azerbaijani Ambassadors to the United States had been present. There had also been meetings with the Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Elizabeth Olson and U.S. Senior Advisor on Caucasus Negotiations, Philip Reeker, was also present for the trilateral meetings. Possibly of note, however, was that the separate statements issued by the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers were virtually identical.
This was not the case following their last bilateral meeting in Geneva.
Though short on details, or any at all actually, the statements from both the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministries on yesterday’s meetings in D.C. are pretty much identical. This is unlike the two statements from their Geneva meeting where the differences were noticeable. https://t.co/hG98oTxbr6
— Onnik J. Krikorian (@onewmphoto) November 8, 2022
In those statements published earlier today, the two sides reaffirmed the commitments undertaken by the Armenian Prime Minister and Azerbaijani President in Prague and, of particular note, in Sochi. This is especially relevant given that some observers have concluded that yesterday’s meeting was a direct response by the United States to the tripartite meeting held on 31 October with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It could of course still be, but there is also increasing concern that Moscow can derail any process that seeks to sideline it.
This makes the reference to Sochi arguably all the more interesting.
For now, however, the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers agreed to “expedite their negotiations and organise another meeting in the coming weeks.” This is particularly relevant given a much speculated window of opportunity for signing a peace deal in some shape or form by the end of this year and while the recently deployed but temporary European Union Monitoring Capacity in Armenia (EUMCAP) remains on the ground. The Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders are still expected to meet again in Brussels this month.
“The meeting yesterday underscores Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s serious pursuit of peace through intensified dialogue,” said U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price in a statement issued earlier today.
It remains to be seen whether any new details emerge from yesterday’s meeting in the coming days from remarks made by officials domestically in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, or even through leaks as has happened, but the process looks set to continue at least. However, and despite the urgent need for a breakthrough and a peace treaty to be signed in some shape or form, there will still be many obstacles along the way and it can also end in failure. November, basically, looks set to be an incredibly critical and important month.
