Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan finds himself facing a turbulent political landscape following snap local elections in the municipalities of Gyumri and Parakar late last month. Despite municipal votes often being dismissed as minor, the outcome of the March 30 elections carries national weight. In both Gyumri and Parakar, Pashinyan’s ruling political party, Civil Contract, failed to secure a majority of the votes. The elections were widely considered a referendum on Pashinyan’s premiership. Pashinyan’s approval ratings hover around 11 percent, according to a survey published in January of this year. This, combined with the election results in Gyumri and Parakar, means that Pashinyan’s political survivability may be in question.
In Gyumri, Armenia’s second-largest city and home to the Russian 102nd military base, Pashinyan’s approval ratings are particularly symbolic given that he embarked on a pivotal march to unseat his predecessor, walking 117 kilometers (72 miles) from Gyumri to Yerevan in 2018, almost seven years ago to the day. Despite most Armenians expecting Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party to outright win the elections, there was the possibility that another party could strike a deal for it to still govern.
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In September 2023, Civil Contract had also failed to win an outright majority in the Yerevan municipal elections, attracting just 33 percent of the vote. Pashinyan’s candidate, Tigran Avinyan, had to instead rely on an extra-parliamentary Public Voice led by a former policeman and controversial video blogger, currently detained in the United States, to retain power. In Gyumri last month, however, there was no political force to make a deal. Even a new pro-European Union extra-parliamentary force believed close to Pashinyan failed to pass the six percent threshold.
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For now, Pashinyan must balance westward aspirations with the ever-present shadow of Russia and an increasingly assertive opposition at home. If he can offer voters a compelling vision of a “Real Armenia”—one that overcomes military defeat, economic stagnation, and regional isolation—he might still chart a path to re-election. The 2018 Velvet Revolution, however, feels distant for most Armenians now, as demonstrated in Gyumri. The loss of Karabakh and the attempted control of power in the regions of Armenia define his tenure today.
The full piece is available here.
