Despite progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan over border delimitation and demarcation, another issue threatens to hinder the signing of a long-awaited agreement to normalise relations. Baku now demands that Yerevan first removes from its constitution a controversial preamble referencing the 1990 Declaration of Independence. Based on the 1989 decision on the Reunification of the Armenian SSR and the Mountainous Region of Karabakh, the Armenian government has signalled that the preamble might be removed, but that it does not appreciate being publicly lectured from abroad to do so.
In response, Azerbaijan counters that as the preamble effectively lays claim to part of its internationally recognised territory it is not simply an internal matter.
This issue is not new, but until this point, its removal had not been a precondition for signing a peace deal. The timing has also taken some aback coming as it does during ongoing protests against Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Yerevan. Changing the constitution is already problematic enough given that other controversial changes such as removing various problematic symbols on official emblems are possibly slated too. It also forms part of Pashinyan’s stated objective to transform the country away from what he considers to be a revanchist Historical Armenia to more conciliatory and contemporary Real Armenia.
Baku views the issue of constitutional amendments solely in a post-conflict paradigm, even though Pashinyan has wanted to make them ever since coming to power after the 2018 Velvet Revolution. Though at that time not envisaging the changes mentioned above, adopting a new constitution was anyway logical after removing the previous regime and rejecting all of its largely negative hallmarks. Georgia did the same after its 2003 Rose Revolution.
Only the pandemic and 44-day-war in 2020, as well as snap elections in 2021, prevented him from doing so and there is so far no reason to believe anything has changed in his intent. There might now be even more reason to do so, not only as part of efforts to normalise relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, but also in order to move his premiership forwards. The opposition also credibly charges that it is the only way to guarantee his political survival and absolve himself of any blame for the 44-day-war by symbolically moving from a third republic to a fourth.
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Armenia will go to parliamentary elections no later than the middle of 2026. Holding a referendum in parallel with that vote would at least guarantee a higher voter turnout than one held on its own. It would also allow time to improve Armenia-Azerbaijan relations and implement much-needed confidence-building measures simultaneously. Chancing a peace agreement on a premature referendum instead sounds like a somewhat risky and potentially reckless endeavour.
The full opinion piece can be read online here.
