Photo: European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA)
On December 30, 2024, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards left Armenia’s Agarak border checkpoint with Iran at the end of December 2024 . This follows the FSB border guard’s withdrawal from Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport at the end of July 2024. The move had been anticipated by several pro-government activists in Armenia who had already called for their removal to cut off Russian access to the country’s Border Electronic Management Information System. This applies, however, only to the checkpoint and not the entire length of the Armenia-Iran border. Instead, FSB border guards will now be joined by an unknown number of Armenian National Security Service (NSS) border guards to jointly perform duties. Until now, the FSB guards have been solely responsible for guarding Armenia’s borders with Iran and Türkiye, as stipulated in a 1992 agreement between Yerevan and Moscow. Their withdrawal from the checkpoint represents a symbolic reduction in Armenia’s reliance on Russia for its security needs and a gradual diversification away from Moscow in general.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan can tout the development as a successful move in exerting gradual control of its sovereign territory in a pre-election year, but another development relating to a different border could prove more difficult and perhaps even more sensitive. Following clashes on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border in September 2022, the European Union deployed a Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) civilian observation mission to reduce tensions between the sides. That decision stemmed from the October 6, 2022 meeting between Pashinyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart, President Ilham Aliyev, alongside the presidents of the European Council and France, Charles Michel and Emmanuel Macron, at the first-ever European Political Community (EPC) summit in Prague. The temporary mission was able to deploy quickly because it was made up of 40 monitors already in neighboring Georgia as part of the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) on the Administrative Boundary Lines with the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
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Responding to renewed demands from Baku that EUMA be withdrawn from the Armenian side of the shared border, Pashinyan said in November that he has instead offered to withdraw it only from those parts of the border that have been demarcated. It is implied, however, that this would include other parts once they are demarcated in the future.
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The demand for EUMA to withdraw is also just one of many conditions from Baku for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement, including on the constitution. Failure to agree on all demands might lead to continued deadlock throughout 2025. For now, Yerevan has not publicly stated whether it has officially requested EUMA extend its mission next month even though the European Union has offered to do so.
The full analysis is available here.
