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In Armenia, Strategic Diversification Clashes With Geographic Realities
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled plans to seek European Union (EU) membership. Though framed as an attempt to diversify away from decades of dependency on Russia, Moscow instead sees it as a western attempt to simply oust it from the region.
From Key West to Key Failures – The Demise of the OSCE Minsk Group
When I moved to Yerevan in October 1998, it was rare to hear much positive conversation about the future of Armenia or Karabakh. That had also been the case when I visited the country on a research trip earlier that June. Many were already tired of the conflict and few seemed enthused with a new regime that had just come to power after the ousting the country’s first president earlier that year.
Interview on Armenia-Azerbaijan Normalisation
Earlier this month I was briefly interviewed by Nazrin Babayeva from Report.Az. It was published in two parts so included below is the full text in whole.
Hope for breakthrough with Azerbaijan dims as Armenia a no-show
Hopes that Armenia and Azerbaijan might take a step towards normalising relations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 29) in Baku this month were dashed when Armenia failed to send a delegation to the event, despite receiving an official invitation.
Armenia-Azerbaijan talks in the balance as COP29 deadline approaches
Many remain skeptical that such a breakthrough can materialise, though it is clear that international pressure, especially from the United States, continues unabated. It is believed that both Yerevan and Washington hope to have an agreement signed before the U.S. presidential elections on 5 November and especially by COP29 just days later.
Tbilisoba 2024
Earlier this month, Tbilisi celebrated Tbilisoba, the city’s annual harvest festival. Over the years it has changed significantly and seems smaller than before. I first covered the event in 2011 but the best so far remains 2014 when there was more representation of traditional Georgian folk dance and music as well as by ethnic minorities such as the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities. This year, that was held relatively far away from Tbilisi’s Old Town and Rike Park with very little publicity or in some media any at all. Nonetheless, those that attended appeared to enjoy themselves sufficiently and I managed to photo stories.
Can Armenia and Azerbaijan finally reach an agreement by COP29?
As this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku draws closer, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be drifting further apart. Despite hopes that the opposite would be true, a lack of clarity and confusion instead continues to reign. Does the draft Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations contain 17 points or 16? Initially, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced that consensus had been reached on 13 points while 3 were partially agreed and there was no agreement at all on a fourth.
Militant Groups Resurface in Armenia’s Struggle Against Radicalization
Last month, Armenia arrested several individuals accused of recruiting others to stage a coup in the country. The group has a history of recruiting Armenian citizens as foreign fighters in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Armenian government faces a potential vulnerability from militant groups as progress occurs in the normalization process with Azerbaijan following the 2020 44-day war and recent conflict in Karabakh, fueling discontent among many Armenians.
Yerevan and Baku at a crossroads
Though there had been hopes that some kind of agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be initialled or signed by November this year, the situation looks increasingly uncertain as Russia once again enters the fray.