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Lachin Corridor standoff enters fourth week
The 25 December rally in Stepanakert, the defacto capital of what remains of the Soviet-era Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), was large. An estimated 30-35,000 ethnic Armenian residents of the breakaway region gathered in the city’s Renaissance Square in an act of defiance in response to Azerbaijani “eco—activists” picketing the Lachin corridor.
Standoff in Lachin as Humanitarian Concerns Mount
At time of writing, the strategic Lachin corridor has been effectively blocked for twelve days by Azerbaijani protestors. Depending on whom you ask, this recent development either risks derailing an already precarious Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process or makes the signing of a treaty all the more urgent. Whatever your position, however, it was clear that Baku would apply pressure on the only connection between Armenia and what remains of the former Soviet-era Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO).
What was unknown was simply how.
EUMM Georgia to deploy a transitional planning assistance team in Armenia as EUMCAP ends
Today, 19 December 2022, the European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) ended its short two-month mission in Armenia. Deployed as a result of the 6 October Prague meeting between European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, its short mission coincided with apparent signals emanating from the 27 September meeting between senior Armenian and Azerbaijani officials in Washington D.C. that a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku could be signed by year’s end.
Landmine Free South Caucasus 2022 Campaign
Late last month civil society in Azerbaijan and Georgia marked a day of solidarity for the victims of landmines and the communities that are affected by them. I attended the event held by LINKS Europe and its local partners in Tbilisi while another event was held simultaneously by my good friend Ahmad Alili, Director of the Caucasus Policy Analysis Centre (CPAC), in Baku. I was told a similar event was also held in Yerevan.
Calls for the European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) in Armenia to be extended
According to the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, the temporary European Union Monitoring Mission Capacity (EUMCAP) in Armenia will end on 20 December 2022. Requested by Mirzoyan on 22 September following fierce fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the border a week earlier, the decision to deploy came out the quadripartite meeting of the two leaders and European Council and French presidents, Charles Michel and Emmanuel Macron, in Prague on 6 October before being approved by EU member states on 17 October.
U.S. urges Armenia and Azerbaijan to maintain momentum in peace negotiations
Less than a month and a half before the end of the year, hopes remain high for the normalisation of relations between Yerevan and Baku, and especially since the last round of negotiations held the United States. “I urged Prime Minister Pashinyan to sustain momentum on peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia following the foreign ministers’ talks in Washington on 7 November,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted on 16 November in a follow up call to the Armenian leader. Hours later he tweeted the same message, but this time addressed to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
EU Monitoring Capacity deploys on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border
The European Union has deployed around 40 unarmed civilian monitors on the Armenian side of the border with Azerbaijan following serious military escalation on 12-13 September, that saw the latter strike and capture territory within the former, leaving nearly 300 dead on both sides. Though requested in September by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the decision to deploy the monitors came on 6 October at the meeting in Prague between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, European Council President Charles Michel, and French President Emmanuel Macron.
Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers Meet in Washington D.C. for Bilateral Talks – and also with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken
For many, the significance of yesterday’s bilateral meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, appears to have been overlooked. Instead, all attention was focused on the later meeting of the two state officials with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Though important, the preparation of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan has actually been assigned to the Foreign Ministers in a bilateral format and not to one with the direct involvement of any external actors.
EU Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) starts patrolling the Armenian Border with Azerbaijan
Following the arrival of a technical assessment team to Armenia, a monitoring mission from the European Union today started patrolling the country’s border with Azerbaijan. The decision to deploy the 40 or so civilian monitors has been widely welcomed and applauded but it is important to realise what it is and what it isn’t. To begin with, or for now at least, it is not an indefinite presence in Armenia with a fixed term of just two months. That might seem short to many, but it’s also important to realise why.