The Center of Analysis of International Relations has just published my latest on the continuing impasse and discussion on Baku’s demand to remove the current preamble to Armenia’s Constitution that I’ve been consistently covering since late January last year. This has also includes pieces mentioning attempts by various commentators in Armenia and Azerbaijan including AIR’s Farid Shafiyev.
During a visit to Washington, D.C. on February 5, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed that Armenia hopes “to open a new page in relations with the United States.” This hope was in reference to the Charter of Strategic Partnership between Armenia and the United States signed on January 14 to strengthen bilateral relations (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, January 14). The signing of the charter occurred just days before the last administration left the White House.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has signalled plans to seek European Union (EU) membership. Though framed as an attempt to diversify away from decades of dependency on Russia, Moscow instead sees it as a western attempt to simply oust it from the region.
On December 30, 2024, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) border guards left Armenia’s Agarak border checkpoint with Iran at the end of December 2024. This follows the FSB border guard’s withdrawal from Yerevan’s Zvartnots Airport at the end of July 2024. The move had been anticipated by several pro-government activists in Armenia who had already called for their removal to cut off Russian access to the country’s Border Electronic Management Information System.
When I moved to Yerevan in October 1998, it was rare to hear much positive conversation about the future of Armenia or Karabakh. That had also been the case when I visited the country on a research trip earlier that June. Many were already tired of the conflict and few seemed enthused with a new regime that had just come to power after the ousting the country’s first president earlier that year.
Earlier this month I was briefly interviewed by Nazrin Babayeva from Report.Az. It was published in two parts so included below is the full text in whole.
On November 14, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan lambasted the country’s 1990 Declaration of Independence, equating the historical document to the non-existence of the current Republic. The issue of the declaration, which contains claims to what is considered sovereign Azerbaijani territory in the form of the former Soviet-era “Mountainous Region of Karabakh,” then an autonomous district, has proven to be the main obstacle to Yerevan and Baku finally concluding a long-anticipated peace agreement.
Hopes that Armenia and Azerbaijan might take a step towards normalising relations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 29) in Baku this month were dashed when Armenia failed to send a delegation to the event, despite receiving an official invitation.
Many remain skeptical that such a breakthrough can materialise, though it is clear that international pressure, especially from the United States, continues unabated. It is believed that both Yerevan and Washington hope to have an agreement signed before the U.S. presidential elections on 5 November and especially by COP29 just days later.