After months amassing troops on the border with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the order to further into Ukrainian territory late last month. For the first time in two decades, full-scale war returned to the European continent, sending out shockwaves globally. Outrage was widespread and in a rare show of unity, even if unwilling or unable to intervene directly, the vast majority of UN member states condemned the Russian military action.
Having declined to attend a meeting of Euronest in Yerevan in 2015, the arrival of two Azerbaijani MPs, Tahir Mirkishili and Soltan Mammadov, in Armenia was the first in a decade. According to one regional analyst, their participation was an achievement. Some might well consider if this isn’t an important precedent for the resumption of other exchanges between the two countries following the 2020 Karabakh War.
In a Commonspace piece published last month, Johnny Melikian and Ramazan Samadov argue that the unblocking of regional economic and transport links represent an unprecedented opportunity for achieving peace and stability in the South Caucasus. Though the authors note that the wounds from the war will take time to heal, it is this connectivity that could prove to be the most significant development emerging from the 2020 ceasefire agreement.
To very little publicity, let alone fanfare, a delegation of Azerbaijani MPs is expected to arrive in Yerevan, Armenia, next week to attend a meeting of the Bureau and Committees of the Euronest Parliamentary Assembly. Euronest is an inter-parliamentary forum comprising members of the European Parliament and the parliaments of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine.
In a podcast with ANN/Groong, Dr. Benyamin Poghosyan, the founder of the Center for Political and Economic Strategic Studies, offered his opinion from Yerevan on the recent teleconference between the Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Council President Charles Michel held on 4 February 2022.
Though there have been many online Zoom discussions between Armenian and Azerbaijan activists, analysts and academics during and especially since the 2020 Karabakh War, there have been precious few actual in-person meetings. In part, this has been because of pandemic travel restrictions but not only. For example, one meeting of Armenian and Azerbaijani analysts due to be held late last year was postponed because of the November border skirmishes and has still yet to be held. If it will at all, of course.
Serzh Sargsyan, the Gray Cardinal of Armenian politics as he was often referred to back in the day, has spoken. It is unlikely that many Armenians will be hanging on his every word given that it’s only four years ago that street protests forced him out of office. The hand-picked successor to the far more ruthless and cynical Robert Kocharian, Sargsyan came to power in 2008 in contested presidential elections that left 10 people dead in post-election violence.
While the 9-point ceasefire agreement that ended fighting in the 2020 Karabakh War omits any direct reference to a comprehensive settlement of the conflict, there are nonetheless some elements that allude to the need for one. The seventh point in the agreement, for example, refers to the right of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return not only to the seven previously occupied regions of Azerbaijan, but also to the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO).
Despite low expectations following the meeting late last month between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Sochi, another between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev held a day before the Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit in Brussels on 15 December can be largely assessed as successful. It marks the first direct engagement of the European Union in the Karabakh conflict despite over three decades of animosity that obstructed cooperation between the two in the EaP. Previously, the EU has largely confined its involvement to voicing support for the OSCE Minsk Group process.