Serzh Sargsyan, the Gray Cardinal of Armenian politics as he was often referred to back in the day, has spoken. It is unlikely that many Armenians will be hanging on his every word given that it’s only four years ago that street protests forced him out of office. The hand-picked successor to the far more ruthless and cynical Robert Kocharian, Sargsyan came to power in 2008 in contested presidential elections that left 10 people dead in post-election violence.
While the 9-point ceasefire agreement that ended fighting in the 2020 Karabakh War omits any direct reference to a comprehensive settlement of the conflict, there are nonetheless some elements that allude to the need for one. The seventh point in the agreement, for example, refers to the right of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return not only to the seven previously occupied regions of Azerbaijan, but also to the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO).
Despite low expectations following the meeting late last month between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Sochi, another between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev held a day before the Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit in Brussels on 15 December can be largely assessed as successful. It marks the first direct engagement of the European Union in the Karabakh conflict despite over three decades of animosity that obstructed cooperation between the two in the EaP. Previously, the EU has largely confined its involvement to voicing support for the OSCE Minsk Group process.
The November 2020 Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan left many questions unanswered, not only in terms of its implementation but also in terms of whether the West has any role in any processes that might emerge. Not only were the US and European Union taken by surprise by last year’s war, but they have also largely remained marginalised or absent from developments since.
A trilateral meeting between the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia was held in Sochi on 26 November. Few details emerged from the meeting. For some it was a non-event, for others a step forward in diplomacy.
A trilateral meeting between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia should take place tomorrow, November 26, in the Russian tourist resort of Sochi. At the center of the diplomatic initiative the possible agreements between the two warring countries. However, the information is still scarce.
Though the future remains unpredictable, last year’s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh changed the geographical and geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus after three decades of bitterness, conflict, and division.
Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso has just published my short piece remembering Armenian human rights and peace activist Georgi Vanyan who sadly passed away recently after testing positive for COVID-19 earlier this month.
It is with great sadness that I write this post. Georgi Vanyan, human rights and peace activist, has died. Upon hearing that he had been moved on to a ventilator after being diagnosed and hospitalised in Tbilisi with COVID-19 I think we knew that this was how it was going to end, but that doesn’t make the loss any less painful. Following last year’s war, Georgi was needed now more than ever.