Some might argue that the writing was on the wall even in 1998 when Armenia’s first president, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, was forced to resign by then Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan, former Defence Minister Vazgen Sargsyan, and Interior Minister Serzh Sargsyan, with the full support of then de facto Karabakh leader Arkhady Ghukasyan. Ter-Petrosyan warned what would happen next if proposals from the now defunct OSCE Minsk Group were not accepted, but few listened.

In what was termed a ‘counterterrorism operation’ by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence, fighting again resumed with ethnic Armenian forces entrenched in the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO). This followed earlier reports of seven deaths caused by landmines allegedly laid by Armenian sabotage groups on territory under Baku’s control. The Azerbaijani MoD said it responded by launching surgical strikes against military targets within Karabakh.

On 12 September, after nearly months of not receiving any, humanitarian assistance finally arrived in Karabakh, albeit not without controversy. Having crossed the border between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation three days earlier, it was meant to travel from Samur to Askeran via Baku, Barda, and Aghdam. However, it remained delayed for days as some wondered whether it would ever arrive at all.

Arayik Harutyunyan, the de facto leader of what remains of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), has resigned. Though many were skeptical, given similar pronouncements in recent months, Harutyunyan, who held the otherwise unrecognized position of ‘president’ of the mainly ethnic-Armenian breakaway region, was true to his word this time.