Hopes that Armenia and Azerbaijan might take a step towards normalising relations at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 29) in Baku this month were dashed when Armenia failed to send a delegation to the event, despite receiving an official invitation.
Many remain skeptical that such a breakthrough can materialise, though it is clear that international pressure, especially from the United States, continues unabated. It is believed that both Yerevan and Washington hope to have an agreement signed before the U.S. presidential elections on 5 November and especially by COP29 just days later.
Earlier this month, Tbilisi celebrated Tbilisoba, the city’s annual harvest festival. Over the years it has changed significantly and seems smaller than before. I first covered the event in 2011 but the best so far remains 2014 when there was more representation of traditional Georgian folk dance and music as well as by ethnic minorities such as the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities. This year, that was held relatively far away from Tbilisi’s Old Town and Rike Park with very little publicity or in some media any at all. Nonetheless, those that attended appeared to enjoy themselves sufficiently and I managed to photo stories.
Though there had been hopes that some kind of agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be initialled or signed by November this year, the situation looks increasingly uncertain as Russia once again enters the fray.
Early last month, Azerbaijan’s President, Ilham Aliyev, announced that an agreement to normalize relations with Armenia is unlikely to be signed unless it changes its constitution. Specifically, this would mean removing a controversial preamble that references the 1990 Declaration of Independence, which in turn is based on the 1989 Joint Statement on the “Reunification of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Mountainous Region of Karabakh.”
For a year, the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) has been deployed on the border with Azerbaijan, which it patrols regularly: a measure considered necessary by Yerevan – which fears a new conflict – but viewed with suspicion by Baku.
On December 14, the European Council granted EU candidate status to Georgia. An important step, celebrated the following day in the capital Tbilisi, both by the authorities and the population. However, the path towards the EU still remains ahead.
Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a late-night joint statement that surprised even the most seasoned of commentators. Though it remains unclear whether this could be a long-awaited breakthrough in negotiations, the international community was united in welcoming the move.
Last week’s decision by the European Commission to recommend Georgia receive European Union candidate status caught many by surprise. A survey conducted by the Tbilisi-based Caucasus Research Resource Centre (CRRC) in the previous days showed that, despite widespread support for EU membership, only 33% of respondents believed it would obtain it. Unlike Ukraine and Moldova, which became candidates in June last year, Georgia had instead been required to address 12 priorities first.