As this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku draws closer, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be drifting further apart. Despite hopes that the opposite would be true, a lack of clarity and confusion instead continues to reign. Does the draft Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations contain 17 points or 16? Initially, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced that consensus had been reached on 13 points while 3 were partially agreed and there was no agreement at all on a fourth.

October 27, 1999, was a day quite unlike any other. U.S. Secretary of State Strobe Talbott had been in town to talk Karabakh and a new Catholicos was controversially elected in Etchmiadzin. Later that evening, outside the Armenian National Assembly, a crowd had gathered, including myself, where an armed gang was holed up inside.

When Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract took power in Armenia in 2018 it did so with 70 percent of the vote. By the time snap elections were held in June 2021 that had fallen to 53.95 percent. Later, in Yerevan municipal elections last year, it was just 32.6 percent. Most recently, in December, a survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI) showed that only 20 percent of respondents would vote for Civil Contract if elections were held that weekend.

This month marks the 30th Anniversary of the 1994 ceasefire agreement that put the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the then disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh on hold. The 5 May declaration, known as the Bishkek Protocol, instructed the sides to introduce a ceasefire on 9 May though slight delays followed. A formal cessation was signed by the Armenian, Azerbaijan, and Karabakh defence ministers days later, coming into effect just after midnight on 12 May 1994.

The announcement of the return of the four non-enclave villages of Baghanis Ayrim, Ashagi Askipara, Kheyrimli, and Gizilhajili comes as a welcome development. Situated in that part of Azerbaijan’s Gazakh region under Armenian control since the early 1990s, they were initially mentioned in an early version of the November trilateral ceasefire statement before being removed from the final version.