Residents of Vagharshapat, better known to many as Etchmiadzin, went to polls on Sunday to elect a 33-member city council. The vote was particularly important given that it could highlight the political mood in the country ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections.
Tensions are mounting in Armenia ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections, with the nation’s future hanging in the balance. Despite the excitement surrounding the Trump-brokered Washington Declaration in August, it is unclear whether it can overcome the lingering division that set in after defeat by Azerbaijan in the 44-day war.
“Welcome to Armenia,” the pilot’s voice came over the tannoy as the Turkish Atlasjet flight touched down in Yerevan some time in 2011. “The temperature outside is…” A normal announcement on any flight. This one, however, came in Turkish before being repeated in English. In Armenia.
This Saturday marks the fifth anniversary of the Second Karabakh War. To be honest, and personally speaking, it had always seemed the continuation of the first waged between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the early 1990s. After all, in the three decades between both, the conflict had nearly always been described as ‘frozen’ rather than resolved – at least until it wasn’t.
The prospect of peace in the South Caucasus may finally be within reach. Following the high-profile meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House as facilitated by U.S. President Donald Trump on 8 August, hopes are rising that Yerevan and Baku could soon sign a long-anticipated peace treaty.
Next year’s parliamentary elections in Armenia will not focus on the economy or other domestic issues, but rather on the country’s place in the surrounding region and relations with its neighbours.
It was a glimpse of what has otherwise been lost – human contact and friendship. I think it was Thomas de Waal that told me in an interview in Yerevan in the early 2000s that one of the greatest losses in the conflict had been the exodus of ethnic Azerbaijanis from Armenia and ethnic Armenians from Azerbaijan. Today, coexistence and familiarity only exists in third countries such as Georgia.
It is now 31 years since I first travelled from London to the South Caucasus to report on what was then Nagorno-Karabakh. Since that time, I have covered nearly every aspect of the conflict – Azerbaijani prisoners of war and civilian hostages during my first visit to Karabakh in 1994; ethnic Armenian refugees from Azerbaijan struggling to rebuild their lives in Armenia later that same year and again from 1999; and, throughout the 2000s, the ever-present threat of landmines and unexploded ordnance scattered across the seven formerly occupied Azerbaijani regions surrounding Karabakh. Those dangers continue to claim lives even today.
As diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan once again make headlines, the real challenge lies not in high-level meetings or momentary gestures, but in the unfortunate disconnect between the elites and the populations they represent. For almost thirty years, press release after press release declared that talks inched towards peace. Hopes were premature. The sides will next month mark the anniversary of the last war fought five years ago.