This month marked the third anniversary of the ceasefire statement that was meant to end the second Karabakh war. In retrospect, it might be more appropriately considered a continuation of the first conflict of the early 1990s given that the ceasefire then was hardly implemented too, leading to a new war 26 years later. Meanwhile, hopes that Baku and Yerevan could sign a peace agreement are fading.
On 8 October, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Tbilisi to meet with his Georgian counterpart, Irakli Garibashvili. The unannounced meeting concerned regional projects such as a new Black Sea port in Anaklia and the Middle Corridor that will stretch from China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Both leaders expressed a desire to bring peace to their shared but troubled region while Aliyev surprised many by offering to “immediately” launch talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Georgia.
The idea was to create a win-win situation where Azerbaijan would not only connect to Nakhchivan but Armenia could potentially join the Middle Corridor transportation link from China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus, ending its semi-isolation and exclusion from regional energy and transportation projects.
By a decree of its de-facto leader, Samvel Sharamanyan, the self-declared and internationally unrecognised Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) was dissolved and will cease to exist by the end of 2023. NKR was declared by the Karabakh Armenians in 1991 to replace the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, which was established by the Soviets in 1923. Thus, the dissolution of NKR ends a hundred years during which Nagorno-Karabakh had its own political status and identity.
It is now time for Armenian and Azerbaijani analysts and political scientists to elaborate potential models for integration in unison. Though Baku says it already has a plan, no details are known or even if it exists at all. And even if it does, then Armenian and Azerbaijani civil society could have suggestions and recommendations.
Georgia has long been an obvious choice for hosting most Track II initiatives that bring Armenians and Azerbaijanis together on neutral ground. Despite this, however, it rarely gets the credit it deserves for doing so. Bordering both Armenia and Azerbaijan, not only is it perfectly situated geographically, keeping travel and accommodation costs lower, but it also keeps such initiatives in the region.
Delays in signing an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement open the prospects that the process may be derailed as a result of domestic politics. Next month, Yerevan will go to the polls to indirectly elect a new mayor. The parliamentary opposition is boycotting the vote, and a large number of voters remain apathetic or undecided, but the vote can still be seen as demonstrative enough ahead of the 2026 national parliamentary elections.
“Today, the media in both Armenia and Azerbaijan, and also among those niche market publications based abroad that report on the region, amplify the negative and nearly always ignore any positive developments or glimmers of hope,” writes Onnik James Krikorian in this op-ed for commonspace.eu.
Many consider that negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, “nearly three years after the start of the 2020 Karabakh War, are at a make or break point,” writes Onnik James Krikorian for commonspace.eu.