As had been expected, a final decision on the deployment of a larger and longer-term Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) civilian monitor mission to Armenia will be made by the European Union’s Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) on Monday, 23 January. This follows a preliminary decision already taken by the Political and EU Security Committee (PSC).
On 4 January, the European Union External Action Service (EEAS) posted a call for contributions to a new EU Mission to Armenia (EUMA) that would monitor the country’s fragile and sometimes volatile border with neighbouring Azerbaijan. Most positions for the civilian Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) mission would be secondments from EU countries and 69 are currently being advertised with a deadline of 19 January.
Today, 19 December 2022, the European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) ended its short two-month mission in Armenia. Deployed as a result of the 6 October Prague meeting between European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, its short mission coincided with apparent signals emanating from the 27 September meeting between senior Armenian and Azerbaijani officials in Washington D.C. that a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku could be signed by year’s end.
According to the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, the temporary European Union Monitoring Mission Capacity (EUMCAP) in Armenia will end on 20 December 2022. Requested by Mirzoyan on 22 September following fierce fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the border a week earlier, the decision to deploy came out the quadripartite meeting of the two leaders and European Council and French presidents, Charles Michel and Emmanuel Macron, in Prague on 6 October before being approved by EU member states on 17 October.
The European Union has deployed around 40 unarmed civilian monitors on the Armenian side of the border with Azerbaijan following serious military escalation on 12-13 September, that saw the latter strike and capture territory within the former, leaving nearly 300 dead on both sides. Though requested in September by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the decision to deploy the monitors came on 6 October at the meeting in Prague between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, European Council President Charles Michel, and French President Emmanuel Macron.
Following the arrival of a technical assessment team to Armenia, a monitoring mission from the European Union today started patrolling the country’s border with Azerbaijan. The decision to deploy the 40 or so civilian monitors has been widely welcomed and applauded but it is important to realise what it is and what it isn’t. To begin with, or for now at least, it is not an indefinite presence in Armenia with a fixed term of just two months. That might seem short to many, but it’s also important to realise why.
The European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia is to temporarily deploy 40 of its civilian observers to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border for a maximum period of two months. The decision came during the 6 October meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Council Charles Michel in Prague.
Depending on who you ask, Armenia and Azerbaijan are either moving closer towards signing a long overdue peace deal or Yerevan is under duress from Baku to capitulate further following its defeat in 2020. Both can be true, of course, but the reality is that there is only a limited window of opportunity available to reach such a negotiated settlement. Following the recent fighting on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, it seems the international community understands that only too well.
On 3 August, 2022, following the death of an Azerbaijani conscript in clashes with local Armenian forces, Baku launched military operations in Karabakh on a scale not seen since the November 2020 ceasefire statement. Two Armenian soldiers were killed and 19 wounded in multiple Azerbaijani mortar and drone attacks while key strategic heights overlooking Karabakh were also captured. Days earlier, an Armenian soldier had been injured in the escalation that led up to the clashes.