When I moved to Yerevan in October 1998, it was rare to hear much positive conversation about the future of Armenia or Karabakh. That had also been the case when I visited the country on a research trip earlier that June. Many were already tired of the conflict and few seemed enthused with a new regime that had just come to power after the ousting the country’s first president earlier that year.
Almost six months after the mass exodus of the Karabakh Armenians, their plight in Armenia remains as uncertain as ever. On Wednesday, some will even protest in Yerevan’s Freedom Square. There had been no major humanitarian crisis, despite claims of mass starvation as they crossed into Armenia via the Lachin checkpoint in late September, but the situation for many remains one of desperation or despair. A recent report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) highlighted that clearly earlier this month.
Commonspace, a publication by LINKS Europe, has published my latest on the need for positive and alternative narratives in the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict. This has been a problem for decades and while any grim reality needs to be reported on that should not be at the expense of genuine real-world positive examples that can at least represent a glimmer of hope for two societies that remain isolated from each other.
Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a late-night joint statement that surprised even the most seasoned of commentators. Though it remains unclear whether this could be a long-awaited breakthrough in negotiations, the international community was united in welcoming the move.
Despite the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict that has waged for three decades, and despite the ethno-nationalist narrative of alleged ‘ethnic incompatibility,’ the two groups do actually co-inhabit and co-exist in many villages, towns, and cities in Georgia. Ever since first hearing about the ethnic Armenian-Azerbaijani co-inhabited villages from Michael Andersen, a Danish journalist, in 2008 I’ve made a point of visiting them ever since to at least offer one positive example of co-existence between the groups albeit in a third country.
Few were surprised when just over 100,000 ethnic Armenians fled Karabakh in late September. Their departure followed Baku’s military operation to ostensibly take out the last remnants of local ethnic Armenian forces in the breakaway region. For almost three years since the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire statement, local analysts and political figures in Yerevan said that no-one would remain in Karabakh unless it received some kind of autonomy, independence, or security guarantees.
Nestled in the hills and forests of Georgia just a kilometre from the country’s border with Armenia, the residents of Khojorni, a small village numbering just 635, held on 18 November the first of what it hopes will be an annual multicultural festival, Under One Sky. Though such events are not uncommon throughout the country, what made this one special was that the population comprises one made up of ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis.
This month marked the third anniversary of the ceasefire statement that was meant to end the second Karabakh war. In retrospect, it might be more appropriately considered a continuation of the first conflict of the early 1990s given that the ceasefire then was hardly implemented too, leading to a new war 26 years later. Meanwhile, hopes that Baku and Yerevan could sign a peace agreement are fading.
In recent days, Georgia once again hosted the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum, an event with an economic focus. What is new this year is that for the first time an Armenian leader spoke at such a high-level event in Tbilisi, and high-level officials from all three South Caucasus countries were also on the same stage.