As had been expected, a final decision on the deployment of a larger and longer-term Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) civilian monitor mission to Armenia will be made by the European Union’s Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) on Monday, 23 January. This follows a preliminary decision already taken by the Political and EU Security Committee (PSC).
Tomorrow, 17 January, residents of what remains of the besieged and breakaway Soviet-era Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) will be allocated ration coupons for basic and essential foodstuffs as control of the strategic Lachin Corridor by self-identified Azerbaijani environmental activists enters its second month. Despite their claims, however, most consider the effective but albeit partial blockade of the region, situated within Azerbaijan but populated mostly by ethnic Armenians, to be more than just about that.
Not unexpectedly, on 20 January, certain food products in Karabakh will only be available via a rationing coupon or voucher system. This had already been announced by defacto State Minister on 8 January before it was then announced yesterday that it would brought into operation on 20 January. This is something anyway anticipated when stocks in shops started to increasingly disappear or sell out quickly. The coupons will be distributed on 17 January.
Some residents had already been quoted by media calling for such a system as the effective siege of Karabakh on the Lachin Corridor enters its second month.
On 4 January, the European Union External Action Service (EEAS) posted a call for contributions to a new EU Mission to Armenia (EUMA) that would monitor the country’s fragile and sometimes volatile border with neighbouring Azerbaijan. Most positions for the civilian Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) mission would be secondments from EU countries and 69 are currently being advertised with a deadline of 19 January.
Yesterday, Artur Tovmasyan, defacto Speaker of Karabakh’s National Assembly, issued a statement calling on the Russian, French and U.S. Presidents to force Azerbaijan to allow an airlift from Armenia to the isolated region’s airport situated outside of Stepanakert. The remarks came after over three weeks of what are claimed to be environmental protests effectively blocking access to and from Karabakh on the Lachin Corridor.
Understanding the situation in Karabakh in the fourth week of what amounts to an effective blockade is increasingly difficult. Some social media accounts allege starvation is already upon the population while others say there are no problems at all. In reality, neither is correct and even though defacto State Minister Ruben Vardanyan says that the region, situated within Azerbaijan with only the narrow 5 km-wide Lachin corridor to connect it to Armenia, is able to last longer than the three weeks it already has even with imported product shortages.
The 25 December rally in Stepanakert, the defacto capital of what remains of the Soviet-era Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), was large. An estimated 30-35,000 ethnic Armenian residents of the breakaway region gathered in the city’s Renaissance Square in an act of defiance in response to Azerbaijani “eco—activists” picketing the Lachin corridor.
At time of writing, the strategic Lachin corridor has been effectively blocked for twelve days by Azerbaijani protestors. Depending on whom you ask, this recent development either risks derailing an already precarious Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process or makes the signing of a treaty all the more urgent. Whatever your position, however, it was clear that Baku would apply pressure on the only connection between Armenia and what remains of the former Soviet-era Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO).
What was unknown was simply how.
Today, 19 December 2022, the European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) ended its short two-month mission in Armenia. Deployed as a result of the 6 October Prague meeting between European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, its short mission coincided with apparent signals emanating from the 27 September meeting between senior Armenian and Azerbaijani officials in Washington D.C. that a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku could be signed by year’s end.