Late last month civil society in Azerbaijan and Georgia marked a day of solidarity for the victims of landmines and the communities that are affected by them. I attended the event held by LINKS Europe and its local partners in Tbilisi while another event was held simultaneously by my good friend Ahmad Alili, Director of the Caucasus Policy Analysis Centre (CPAC), in Baku. I was told a similar event was also held in Yerevan.
According to the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, the temporary European Union Monitoring Mission Capacity (EUMCAP) in Armenia will end on 20 December 2022. Requested by Mirzoyan on 22 September following fierce fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the border a week earlier, the decision to deploy came out the quadripartite meeting of the two leaders and European Council and French presidents, Charles Michel and Emmanuel Macron, in Prague on 6 October before being approved by EU member states on 17 October.
Less than a month and a half before the end of the year, hopes remain high for the normalisation of relations between Yerevan and Baku, and especially since the last round of negotiations held the United States. “I urged Prime Minister Pashinyan to sustain momentum on peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia following the foreign ministers’ talks in Washington on 7 November,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted on 16 November in a follow up call to the Armenian leader. Hours later he tweeted the same message, but this time addressed to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
The European Union has deployed around 40 unarmed civilian monitors on the Armenian side of the border with Azerbaijan following serious military escalation on 12-13 September, that saw the latter strike and capture territory within the former, leaving nearly 300 dead on both sides. Though requested in September by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the decision to deploy the monitors came on 6 October at the meeting in Prague between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, European Council President Charles Michel, and French President Emmanuel Macron.
For many, the significance of yesterday’s bilateral meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov, appears to have been overlooked. Instead, all attention was focused on the later meeting of the two state officials with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Though important, the preparation of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan has actually been assigned to the Foreign Ministers in a bilateral format and not to one with the direct involvement of any external actors.
Following the arrival of a technical assessment team to Armenia, a monitoring mission from the European Union today started patrolling the country’s border with Azerbaijan. The decision to deploy the 40 or so civilian monitors has been widely welcomed and applauded but it is important to realise what it is and what it isn’t. To begin with, or for now at least, it is not an indefinite presence in Armenia with a fixed term of just two months. That might seem short to many, but it’s also important to realise why.
Following the European Union’s announcement that it would send a 40-person civilian monitoring mission to the Armenian border with Azerbaijan for a maximum of two months, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan later surprised many by announcing that Yerevan was also discussing the deployment of observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation and Europe (OSCE). This declaration was made on 18 October during a press conference held in Yerevan alongside his Norwegian counterpart, Anniken Huitfeldt.
The European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia is to temporarily deploy 40 of its civilian observers to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border for a maximum period of two months. The decision came during the 6 October meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Council Charles Michel in Prague.
Depending on who you ask, Armenia and Azerbaijan are either moving closer towards signing a long overdue peace deal or Yerevan is under duress from Baku to capitulate further following its defeat in 2020. Both can be true, of course, but the reality is that there is only a limited window of opportunity available to reach such a negotiated settlement. Following the recent fighting on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, it seems the international community understands that only too well.