Since the exodus last fall of over 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the once disputed but
now dissolved territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, many have believed a resolution to the
three-decade-long conflict to be within reach. Up until Azerbaijan’s operation to disarm the remnants of the breakaway region’s military last September, it was internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but was governed and populated by ethnic Armenians.
However, in recent months, Baku has been insisting that Yerevan should amend its
constitution first. The problem, it says, is that the document makes reference to the 1990
Declaration of Independence which is, in turn, based on a 1989 statement making
territorial claims on Azerbaijan. This looks likely to have frustrated renewed efforts by the
United States to have the sides expedite the signing of an agreement as a matter of the
utmost urgency.
Hopes were certainly dashed at the European Political Community summit held earlier this
month in the United Kingdom. Until the day itself, it wasn’t even clear that the Armenian
and Azerbaijani leaders, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, would both attend. Though
Pashinyan’s participation had been expected, Aliyev’s was uncertain. At the previous
summit held in Spain last year, he pulled out at the last minute, questioning the value of
negotiating in forums held outside the region. But show up in the UK he did, albeit without
a prior announcement. Efforts to hold talks between the two men nonetheless failed, with
each blaming the other. The last time the two leaders met face-to-face for talks had been in
February on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference.
Just a week earlier, at the NATO summit in Washington, D.C., there had also been a
similar sense of uncertainty, but this time involving the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign
ministers, Ararat Mirzoyan and Jeyhun Bayramov. Yerevan had again already confirmed
Mirzoyan's plans to attend, but Baku kept everyone guessing until the last minute. Only a morning push by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken brought them together for a
meeting, with his participation. Though nothing substantial came of it, the Armenian and
Azerbaijani foreign ministries did at least release identical but brief statements referring to
progress registered toward a “historic agreement.” In his own statement, Blinken again
said the sides were “very close” to reaching a deal.
[…]
At the time of writing, there has been no response from the Armenian Foreign Ministry.
Instead, media report that Pashinyan intends to hold a televised press conference when he
returns from vacation in August to address whether Armenia will attend COP 29 and
whether any document will be signed.
The full piece is available here.
