Jun 25, 2024

Constitutional Delay in Armenia Threatens to Derail Peace Talks With Azerbaijan

On June 19, Armenian media revealed that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had signed an executive order on May 24 instructing the Council for Constitutional Reforms to “draft a new constitution from scratch” by January 2027. The announcement surprised many, as the council, established in 2022, had already finalized work on proposals for constitutional amendments earlier this year. While Pashinyan had previously considered replacing the constitution entirely, he has acknowledged a minimal need for changes in governance. The renewed focus on constitutional reforms comes as Azerbaijani officials have been calling for the removal of territorial claims within the Armenian Constitution against Azerbaijan and Türkiye, which has become a main point of contention in peace talks between Baku and Yerevan.

At the beginning of the year, the Armenian premier said that the country should have a constitution “adopted by the people of Armenia” with “results of a vote that do not give rise to doubts”. Pashinyan was referring to referenda held in 2005 and 2015 that were marred by opposition claims of voter fraud and low-voter turnout. In January, he concluded that Armenia would benefit from a constitution that makes the country “more competitive and viable in new geopolitical and regional conditions,” a comment many took as referring to normalizing relations with neighboring Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

 

Yerevan’s past plans for a referendum to amend the constitution were postponed by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Second Karabakh War in 2020, and snap elections in June 2021. Last year, discussions also included proposals to replace state emblems and remove a controversial preamble asserting territorial claims within Azerbaijan and Türkiye.

 

Earlier this year, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev reiterated calls to remove references to Armenia’s 1990 Declaration of Independence and the 1989 joint statement on the “Reunification of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Mountainous Region of Karabakh”. In early June, Aliyev stated that Azerbaijan would not sign a normalization agreement with Armenia unless the preamble was removed. “The signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan is simply impossible if the existing constitution of Armenia remains unchanged,” Aliyev declared. In response, the Armenian Foreign Ministry denounced Aliyev’s remarks as “blatant interference in the internal affairs of our country”.

 

[…]

 

While Azerbaijan might have time to wait, Armenia arguably does not. Pashinyan will need to present an acceptable peace deal to the Armenian electorate as his Civil Contract party prepares for elections in 2026. Without one, the risk grows that the opposition can again claim that unilateral concessions made to Azerbaijan were unnecessary all along.

The full analysis is available here

 

CONFLICT VOICES e-BOOKS

 

Conflict Voices – December 2010

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Conflict Voices – May 2011

Short essays on the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
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