Understanding the situation in Karabakh in the fourth week of what amounts to an effective blockade is increasingly difficult. Some social media accounts allege starvation is already upon the population while others say there are no problems at all. In reality, neither is correct and even though defacto State Minister Ruben Vardanyan says that the region, situated within Azerbaijan with only the narrow 5 km-wide Lachin corridor to connect it to Armenia, is able to last longer than the three weeks it already has even with imported product shortages.

At time of writing, the strategic Lachin corridor has been effectively blocked for twelve days by Azerbaijani protestors. Depending on whom you ask, this recent development either risks derailing an already precarious Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process or makes the signing of a treaty all the more urgent. Whatever your position, however, it was clear that Baku would apply pressure on the only connection between Armenia and what remains of the former Soviet-era Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO).

What was unknown was simply how.