Logo of the new Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) unarmed civilian European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) that will be headquartered in Yeghegnadzor, Vayots Dzor region.
A week after the deployment of the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA), a dedicated 100-person strong observation of the country’s border with Azerbaijan, there’s still much that remains unknown about its activities. However, in two pieces published this week by the Institute for War & Peace Reporting (IWPR) and Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso, I’ve tried to summarise what we do know.
In the first, published yesterday, there’s initial reaction from analysts in Yerevan and Baku such as Benyamin Poghosyan, Farid Shafiyev, and Mahammad Mammadov, as well as those involved in the process of contribution personnel to the mission such as Tobias Pietz.
The EU has deployed an expanded monitoring mission to Armenia’s volatile border with Azerbaijan in a move that confirms Brussels’ increased commitment in a region that Moscow historically considered its sphere of influence.
In response, the Russian foreign ministry stated that the EU mission would only further stoke “geopolitical confrontation”.
The EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) officially started on February 20 and comprises “exclusively civilian staff [that] will number approximately 100 in total, including around 50 unarmed observers,” according to a press release.
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EUMCAP received a cold reception from Baku, which nevertheless agreed to cooperate with it. In Armenia the mission was criticised by the political opposition for not publicly releasing any reports.
Analysts, however, evaluated it positively.
“[Its] deployment was a significant step in emphasising EU interest and involvement in the South Caucasus and in Armenia,” Benyamin Poghosyan, director of the Centre for Political and Economic Strategic Studies in Yerevan, told IWPR.
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Poghosyan posited that the underlying intention was to contribute to peace talks.
“The primary objective is to create a more conducive environment for the resumption and continuation of Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations and the eventual signing of a peace agreement within a reasonable timescale – probably by the end of 2023,” he said.
Nonetheless, he sounded a note of caution.
“Armenia should not think that EUMA is sent by the EU to freeze the conflict and to provide it with time to strengthen its military while acting as a buffer against a potential Azerbaijani attack,” Poghosyan continued, maintaining that Yerevan should refrain from public criticism of Russia’s peacekeeping force in Karabakh and its general presence in the region.
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[…] ZIF’s Pietz maintained that the mission’s potential far outweighed its risks.
“Yes, Azerbaijan and Russia have not signaled their support for EUMA but especially Baku has no interest to jeopardise its ties, including economically, with the EU by putting the mission and its personnel in actual danger,” he explained. “I rather fear that encounters between local Russian border or military units with EUMA patrols might pose some risks.
“That is why it will be key for EUMA to set up respective emergency communication channels with local commanders and communities.”
The full article is here.
Meanwhile, what did become obvious from the outset, however, is that the European Union needs to focus on managing expectations. As some analysts, including myself, have noted, EUMA is unable to prevent or deter any cross-border incidents or military actions. Its primary task will be to monitor and report back to Brussels. Unfortunately, however, there were initially incorrect reports in the local media that some of the mission could be armed.
It won’t be, and as was clearly stated from the very start. Nonetheless, it is widely believed that EUMA will be able to help reduce tensions on the border even if it will also require an underlying peace process to accompany it in order to be truly effective. Even so, the mission will still prove a sensitive one as I outlined for Osservatorio today.
[…] despite the precedent of the earlier civilian monitoring capacity, some Armenian media inaccurately reported the news, even going as far to imply that while 50 of the 100 staff will be “unarmed monitors”, the remaining 50 might carry weapons. Other reports incorrectly stated that there were 100 monitors and not 50, while yet another even referred to EUMA as “European Union ground forces”.
None of those claims was correct, however, and all were potentially damaging for the mission before it had even operated for a full day. In fairness, news reports that seconded gendarmes and police officers from France and Germany would be among others in EUMA could be the reason for the confusion, coincidentally highlighting how the EU will need to manage expectations for the mission.
“As monitors they are no longer police, even though in the case of EUMM Georgia some of the seconded police decided to wear their uniforms. But they are always unarmed”, clarifies Tobias Pietz, Deputy Head of Analysis at the Center for International Peace Operations (ZIF), a German governmental agency that will also contribute staff to EUMA.
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Even so, concerns have been raised in Baku.
“Unlike the previous temporary version of the mission, there is no clear peace agenda and no coordination with Azerbaijan”, says Topchubashov analyst Mahammad Mammadov. “It may damage the EU’s image as an honest broker in the region and Baku is highly concerned about losing the EU mediation track as it has been the favoured choice for a number of reasons”.
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“The observers must pay heed to the other important party in the region — Russia, which has military and border guards along Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan”, wroteInternational Crisis Group Senior Analyst Olesya Vartanyan for Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung’s International Politics and Society journal.
“The EU should give its mission the tools to facilitate dialogue between Armenian and Azerbaijani military and border guards posted along the border if that might help prevent or damp down violence”, she further remarked, possibly referring to something akin to the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM) that EUMM has established on the ABLs in Georgia.
While there are scant other details available on EUMA, the European Union does indeed see it as a tool to create a more conducive environment for negotiations between Yerevan and Baku. Indeed, that had been the purpose of the earlier EUMCAP too, including in assisting the task of border demarcation and delimitation.
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It is too early to tell how successful EUMA will prove, but many analysts believe that it could contribute to peace and stability on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Some like Poghosyan, however, warn that, unless accompanied by the genuine resumption of the Brussels Process, its efforts could amount to little more than increased regional rivalry in the South Caucasus.
There are some signs of hope. Despite the sudden cancellation of a 7 December meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan with European Council President Charles Michel in Brussels, the EU negotiation track does not appear to have collapsed.
“We have repeatedly reaffirmed our commitment to the peace process, namely the Brussels process”, stated Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during a panel sessionat the Munich Security Conference on 18 February. “Yesterday during a meeting with President of the European Council Charles Michel [and] today during a meeting with Secretary of State Blinken”.
During the conference, incidentally, Aliyev had met with Michel to discuss the EU’s new mission in Armenia, though no other details are known. On 25 February, however, the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus announced during an interview that there were new efforts to revitalise the Brussels Process though the date for a possible meeting between Michel, Aliyev, and Pashinyan was yet to be determined.
The full article is available in English here and in Italian here.
Anyway, as an update to these pieces, the European Union’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus and the Crisis in Georgia, Toivo Klaar, was interviewed by Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty’s Yerevan Bureau. “To say that an unarmed observation mission is directed against anyone is to distort the facts,” he is quoted as saying in the interview by Jam News. Klaar is also relatively upbeat following Munich.
Anyway, for more on EUMA and its predecessor, the temporary short-term European Union Monitoring Capacity in Armenia (EUMCAP), see all my posts here.
