Today, 19 December 2022, the European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) ended its short two-month mission in Armenia. Deployed as a result of the 6 October Prague meeting between European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, its short mission coincided with apparent signals emanating from the 27 September meeting between senior Armenian and Azerbaijani officials in Washington D.C. that a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku could be signed by year’s end.
I took a calculated guess back then that EUMCAP would likely be made up of staff temporarily seconded from an existing Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) missions elsewhere, and the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia was the most likely candidate. Indeed, that was correct, but any hopes for the signing of even a framework peace agreement appear to have been dashed since then, raising certain questions about whether EUMCAP would be extended let alone transformed into a dedicated mission.
This is an important issue because EUMM in Georgia can hardly afford to keep some of its own personnel in Armenia or send any more down unless it recruits more civilian monitors and support staff.
In its press release issued today, the European Council appears to imply that a dedicated mission is not definite and that any decision will likely be contingent on progress in the EU-facilitated peace process. Given that the EU is not known for putting its observers directly in harm’s way, this would mean registering results, whether publicly or privately, in the border demarcation process and/or the normalisation of relations between Baku and Yerevan. However, the tone of the press release sounds cautiously optimistic.
The deployment of 40 European monitoring experts has proved to be effective and contributed to building confidence in an unstable situation. Today we start a new phase in the EU’s engagement in the South Caucasus, with a transitional team that will prepare the ground for a possible longer term EU mission in Armenia, with the ultimate goal of contributing to sustainable peace in the region.
[…]
Against this background, the Council – in agreement with Armenia’s authorities – decided that the existing EU Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM Georgia) will deploy a transitional planning assistance team in Armenia to enhance the EU’s awareness of the security situation, and contribute to the planning and preparation of a possible civilian CSDP mission in the country. The transitional planning assistance team is also expected to support the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, in the EU-facilitated normalisation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
It can only be hoped that the Charles Michel-facilitated process can be kickstarted despite the recent cancelation of a meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan planned for Brussels on 7 December. Certainly, EUMM, which has been operating in Georgia since the August 2008 war with Russia, has been exemplary. Though it cannot prevent ceasefire violations, it can at least calm tensions, including through its Incident Prevention and Response Mechanism (IPRM), working with at-risk communities, and cross-border media workshops.
These are all developments that would benefit Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the region as a whole, but probably only if the EU were convinced that both are truly close to signing a long-awaited peace agreement – and before the end of next year. Indeed, some might argue, preferably by the beginning of Spring 2023 when the snow melts and border incidents become more frequent. Russia and possibly Iran’s reaction, however, will be something to look out for.
