On February 20, the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) marked the first anniversary of its deployment on the Armenian border with Azerbaijan. According to the European Union, its purpose is to aid in the normalization process between Yerevan and Baku and enhance stability in the South Caucasus. Last year, the EUMA was deployed following the end of a shorter-term European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP), which was deployed in October 2022. While Armenia supports the EUMA’s charge, Baku is wary of Brussels’ mediation in the ongoing peace negotiations between both countries.
Yerevan requested EUMCAP to stabilize the situation on the border that escalated to armed clashes in September 2022. EUMCAP recruited 40 staff members from the 200-strong civilian and unarmed European Union Monitoring Mission in Georgia (EUMM) to support the temporary two-month mission in Armenia. The operation was also funded from the EUMM budget. According to Brussels, the mission was additionally intended to support the border demarcation process and delimitation on both sides. It consisted of 40 unarmed civilian monitors, following an agreement reached at a quadrilateral meeting of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Council President Charles Michel at the first-ever European Political Community Summit held in Prague held earlier that same month.
The EUMA faces several challenges and controversies, further exacerbated by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Azerbaijan and others, including Russia and Iran, assert that the European Union is seeking to embed itself further in an already volatile region. Baku argues that Yerevan can use the EUMA to delay the signing of a long-awaited peace agreement. From the outset, Russia saw the deployment as an effort by the European Union to challenge Moscow’s 30-year presence in the country, especially after Yerevan rejected a similar initiative by the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. “We see this as yet another attempt by the European Union to interfere by any means in the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan [and] to oust our country’s mediation efforts,” said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova.
The EUMCAP initiative ended on December 19, 2022. The plans were already in motion to replace EUMCAP with the larger and longer-term EUMA. On January 23, 2023, the EU Foreign Affairs Council scheduled the mission’s official deployment on February 20. According to many observers, France pushed strongly for the EUMA’s establishment, a country fast becoming Armenia’s main ally in the region. “Through border monitoring, this mission has really limited the danger of escalation,” French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna told the French Parliament on December 6, 2022. “This presence should continue as long as it is needed. This is our belief. This is also … the desire of the Armenians”.
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In the future, if the Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process stalls and/or if EUMA is extended in February 2025, it will be crucial to prevent local political interests and regional geopolitical tensions from undermining the original goal of the deployment: fostering peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Such efforts must also aim to avoid escalating the conflict.
The full analysis is available here.
