Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) civilian mission © EUMM
As had been expected, a final decision on the deployment of a larger and longer-term Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) civilian monitor mission to Armenia will be made by the European Union’s Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) on Monday, 23 January. This follows a preliminary decision already taken by the Political and EU Security Committee (PSC).
The proposed European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) will follow last year’s temporary shorter-term European Union Monitoring Capacity in Armenia that was deployed in October last year. There had already been calls for it to be extended or transformed into EUMA even before the mission had ended in late December.
While it has also been rumoured that EUMA would be deployed on 20 February, pending final confirmation, what remains unclear is how large it will be and for how long it will be present.
Though EUMCAP numbered just 40 on secondment from the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia, this will be an actual deployment and not a temporary capacity. Sources familiar with the process say that the Crisis Management Concept initially envisaged up to 100 unarmed civilian monitors for a period yet to be announced.
The recruitment announcement on the EU External Action Service (EEAS), however, is currently requesting applications for 69 listed personnel, and for a period of one year, but that could simply be a preliminary recruitment or secondment of personnel from EU member states and for contractual processes in terms of duration.
Nonetheless, Armenian media today reported that it could be as large as 200 and last for 2 years, equalling that of EUMM in Georgia. Moreover, its area of deployment would cover the entire territory of Armenia though this seems unlikely given that Russian border guards are responsible for patrolling the border with Iran and Turkey.
In reality, of course, its primary focus will be Armenia’s vulnerable border with Azerbaijan. There is so far no reaction from Baku about the likely move. It had previously complained about plans for EUMA to be deployed saying that it would increase security concerns rather than reduce them. It also said it cast serious doubts about the future of the EU peace process.
Some Armenian analysts have also called for a longer term EU CSDP mission in order to delay the signing of an anticipated peace deal between Yerevan and Baku as well as to allow the country to re-arm itself in case of future hostilities. Though EUMA would be unable to prevent a border incursion, it would at least make the international ramifications of one quite serious.
In the meantime, it is unclear how Iran and especially Russia will react to any deployment of a larger, dedicated, and longer-term mission to Armenia given that EUMA will likely be continued after its first term expires, no matter how long that might be. EUMM Georgia currently works on rolling two-year extensions since it deployed in late 2008.
Adding more intrigue to what can be viewed as a possible shift in Armenia’s geopolitical orientation, EEAS today also published a statement reflecting on this year’s 20th anniversary of civilian monitoring missions in the framework of CSDP missions by EU Civilian Operations Commander Stefano Tomat. He also laid out expectations for the future.
“New missions on our Eastern flank are already under consideration,”he wrote, in what some insiders believe refers to Armenia and Moldova. “We can also expect that EU civilian missions will increase cooperation with their military counterparts in EU military missions and operations as well as with EU justice and […] the EU Border and Coastguard Force.”
“Civilian CSDP will be primed to continue to serve the EU’s foreign policy objectives and the security of its citizens in more turbulent times,” Tomat concluded.
For more on EUMCAP and EUMA see my previous posts here.
