Following the 20 September ceasefire agreement between Baku and the de facto authorities of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), many eyes are now on Spain and the European Political Community (EPC) summit scheduled in Granada on 5 October. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev are expected to meet for talks that will also involve France, Germany, and the European Council.
After the last such meeting in Chişinău, Moldova, on 1 June, finding a solution is all the more urgent after last week’s fighting in the region that left hundreds dead and many more injured. Some 8,000 civilians are also believed to have been displaced, and the de facto authorities gave them the opportunity to leave Karabakh for Armenia first.
At time of writing, some 42,500 residents had been evacuated. The de facto authorities in Karabakh had consistently urged the population not to leave immediately unless they had been displaced and lacked shelter, but many did not heed the instruction, leading to scenes of chaos in the city and on the main highway to Armenia that Azerbaijan had permitted access to for the evacuation.
Warnings about the dangers of a mass exodus came true on 25 September, when 100-tons of fuel, made available without cost to those wishing to leave Karabakh amid fears of life under Azerbaijani rule, exploded outside of Stepanakert. Also at time of writing, at least 68 people died in the explosion and hundreds were injured. Though Azerbaijan also offered medical assistance, an agreement was reached to also allow the most critically injured to be airlifted to Armenia given the backlog on the Lachin highway caused by the unordered exodus.
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