Bush’s decision to receive Aliev on April 28 came as a surprise given his administration’s unofficial policy of keeping the White House off limits for foreign leaders with poor human rights and democracy records.
Armenia’s Robert Kocharian is believed to have not paid an official visit to Washington throughout his eight-year presidency for that reason. His foreign minister, Vartan Oskanian, has hinted that Bush’s invitation may be part of U.S. efforts to get Aliev to accept the Minsk Group’s most recent peace plan. It reportedly envisages a referendum in Karabakh that would almost certainly legitimize Armenian control over the disputed region. The peace formula seems largely acceptable to Yerevan.
Those resolutions are particularly damning for Armenia and urge the immediate withdrawal of troops from Kelbajar, Zangelan, Aghdam and other territories under Armenian control. They also affirm the territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan. As I’ve said before, it looks like the best deal on the table is that which was discussed in Rambouillet in February.
Otherwise, and although it could be a bluff, Azerbaijan appears to be preparing for war.
One has to hope that Bush puts enough pressure on Aliyev to prevent that possibility. Certainly, new proposals that might see another meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Presidents this year perhaps represent the last chance for peace between the two republics and a solution to the conflict over Nagorno Karabakh.
In a related development, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said that he was presented with unspecified “new proposals” on Karabakh during a meeting in Washington with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last week. He told Trend news agency that Baku will respond to those proposals during the upcoming visit to the conflict zone by Steven Mann, the Minsk Group’s U.S. co-chair.
According to France’s chief Karabakh negotiator, Bernard Fassier, the proposals were put forward by Rice on behalf of the Minsk Group troika. Visiting Baku on Tuesday, Fassier said the co-chairs have drawn up a peace accord that enables the parties to “realize their hopes by 80 percent.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also spoke of “new proposals” to resolve the conflict after holding talks with Oskanian in Moscow last Friday. He declined to disclose their content.
The full report can be read online here, while the 1993 UN Security Council Resolutions on Karabakh are here.
