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Commonspace yesterday published my third opinion piece on a potential Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement – or rather on what needs to happen and what should be avoided. Given some recent claims – including a rather baffling one that the cost of petrol would be reduced by half if Yerevan and Baku signed a treaty and Azerbaijani petrol was imported to Armenia – it was one that had to be written.
As the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process progresses, Onnik James Krikorian writes in this op-ed for commonspace.eu that it is vital that “simplistic promises of economic prosperity without the appropriate research and a realistic analysis do not lead to later disappointment and disillusionment. That would only be exploited by nationalists and external powers opposed to the normalisation of relations.” While the economic impact of a peace agreement should not be overestimated, however, this does not mean that there won’t be any advantages, he argues.
While economic relations can serve as a means to foster cooperation and build confidence between countries in conflict, genuine progress in the political realm remains essential for any meaningful financial impact. Economic ties alone are insufficient to prevent the recurrence of war, especially in a protracted conflict such as that between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
[…] economic growth would obviously help alleviate poverty and inequality in both societies, it would be erroneous to assume that Armenia and Azerbaijan could establish robust economic connections in the immediate aftermath of a peace agreement. Given that any treaty can also fail, it is unlikely that either country would make substantial investments in this area in the short term.
[…]
“In the dimension of trade, benefits of peace exist, but would overall be smaller than might be expected at first,” a 2019 report funded by the European Union by Berlin Economics found. “As Armenia and Azerbaijan are both relatively small economies and complementarities in the export and import baskets are not large, bilateral goods trade would be limited at around 1% of total trade for Armenia and less than 1% of Azerbaijan’s total trade in the long run.”
It is vital, therefore, that simplistic promises of economic prosperity without the appropriate research and a realistic analysis do not lead to later disappointment and disillusionment. That would only be exploited by nationalists and external powers opposed to the normalisation of relations.
The full opinion piece can be read here.
