This month marked the third anniversary of the ceasefire statement that was meant to end the second Karabakh war. In retrospect, it might be more appropriately considered a continuation of the first conflict of the early 1990s given that the ceasefire then was hardly implemented too, leading to a new war 26 years later. Meanwhile, hopes that Baku and Yerevan could sign a peace agreement are fading.
In recent days, Georgia once again hosted the Tbilisi Silk Road Forum, an event with an economic focus. What is new this year is that for the first time an Armenian leader spoke at such a high-level event in Tbilisi, and high-level officials from all three South Caucasus countries were also on the same stage.
Despite hopes that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev would meet in Brussels towards the end of the month, the European Union’s Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Toivo Klaar, yesterday said that it will now not take place. Giving the reason as “time constraints,” he made the announcement while participating remotely in a conference held in Yerevan.
On 8 October, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Tbilisi to meet with his Georgian counterpart, Irakli Garibashvili. The unannounced meeting concerned regional projects such as a new Black Sea port in Anaklia and the Middle Corridor that will stretch from China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Both leaders expressed a desire to bring peace to their shared but troubled region while Aliyev surprised many by offering to “immediately” launch talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in Georgia.
On 17 October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the European Parliament in Strasbourg. He was the first Armenian leader to do so. From the region, only then Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had done so in 2010. The invitation stemmed from last month’s blitzkrieg operation in Karabakh.
The suggestion followed Aliyev cancelling a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the European Political Community summit in Granada, Spain, on 5 October.
The idea was to create a win-win situation where Azerbaijan would not only connect to Nakhchivan but Armenia could potentially join the Middle Corridor transportation link from China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus, ending its semi-isolation and exclusion from regional energy and transportation projects.
Georgia has long been an obvious choice for hosting most Track II initiatives that bring Armenians and Azerbaijanis together on neutral ground. Despite this, however, it rarely gets the credit it deserves for doing so. Bordering both Armenia and Azerbaijan, not only is it perfectly situated geographically, keeping travel and accommodation costs lower, but it also keeps such initiatives in the region.
Delays in signing an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement open the prospects that the process may be derailed as a result of domestic politics. Next month, Yerevan will go to the polls to indirectly elect a new mayor. The parliamentary opposition is boycotting the vote, and a large number of voters remain apathetic or undecided, but the vote can still be seen as demonstrative enough ahead of the 2026 national parliamentary elections.
Commonspace, a publication by LINKS Europe, has published my latest on the need for positive and alternative narratives in the Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict. This has been a problem for decades and while any grim reality needs to be reported on that should not be at the expense of genuine real-world positive examples that can at least represent a glimmer of hope for two societies that remain isolated from each other.
Armenia and Azerbaijan issued a late-night joint statement that surprised even the most seasoned of commentators. Though it remains unclear whether this could be a long-awaited breakthrough in negotiations, the international community was united in welcoming the move.
Despite the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict that has waged for three decades, and despite the ethno-nationalist narrative of alleged ‘ethnic incompatibility,’ the two groups do actually co-inhabit and co-exist in many villages, towns, and cities in Georgia. Ever since first hearing about the ethnic Armenian-Azerbaijani co-inhabited villages from Michael Andersen, a Danish journalist, in 2008 I’ve made a point of visiting them ever since to at least offer one positive example of co-existence between the groups albeit in a third country.