Eurasianet last week published a piece on what we anyway knew were long-standing disagreements over the construction of a new highway that would connect Azerbaijan with Nakhichevan via Armenia as dictated by the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire statement. It also quoted an anonymous government official as saying that Baku expected a dedicated road in much the same way that the Lachin Corridor passes through Azerbaijan.
As had been expected, a final decision on the deployment of a larger and longer-term Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) civilian monitor mission to Armenia will be made by the European Union’s Foreign Affairs Council (FAC) on Monday, 23 January. This follows a preliminary decision already taken by the Political and EU Security Committee (PSC).
On 4 January, the European Union External Action Service (EEAS) posted a call for contributions to a new EU Mission to Armenia (EUMA) that would monitor the country’s fragile and sometimes volatile border with neighbouring Azerbaijan. Most positions for the civilian Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) mission would be secondments from EU countries and 69 are currently being advertised with a deadline of 19 January.
Though it had been announced in early December that direct cargo flights would start between Armenia and Turkey by the end of last year, the apparent deadlock in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, as well as the impasse between Yerevan, Baku, and Stepanakert on the Lachin Corridor, hardly prepared anyone for such an eventuality. However, a news report published by the Andalou News Agency on 6 January 2023 confirmed that Ankara had indeed given the go-ahead for such flights starting 1 January.
Today, 19 December 2022, the European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) ended its short two-month mission in Armenia. Deployed as a result of the 6 October Prague meeting between European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, its short mission coincided with apparent signals emanating from the 27 September meeting between senior Armenian and Azerbaijani officials in Washington D.C. that a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku could be signed by year’s end.
Late last month civil society in Azerbaijan and Georgia marked a day of solidarity for the victims of landmines and the communities that are affected by them. I attended the event held by LINKS Europe and its local partners in Tbilisi while another event was held simultaneously by my good friend Ahmad Alili, Director of the Caucasus Policy Analysis Centre (CPAC), in Baku. I was told a similar event was also held in Yerevan.
According to the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, the temporary European Union Monitoring Mission Capacity (EUMCAP) in Armenia will end on 20 December 2022. Requested by Mirzoyan on 22 September following fierce fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the border a week earlier, the decision to deploy came out the quadripartite meeting of the two leaders and European Council and French presidents, Charles Michel and Emmanuel Macron, in Prague on 6 October before being approved by EU member states on 17 October.
Less than a month and a half before the end of the year, hopes remain high for the normalisation of relations between Yerevan and Baku, and especially since the last round of negotiations held the United States. “I urged Prime Minister Pashinyan to sustain momentum on peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia following the foreign ministers’ talks in Washington on 7 November,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted on 16 November in a follow up call to the Armenian leader. Hours later he tweeted the same message, but this time addressed to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
The European Union has deployed around 40 unarmed civilian monitors on the Armenian side of the border with Azerbaijan following serious military escalation on 12-13 September, that saw the latter strike and capture territory within the former, leaving nearly 300 dead on both sides. Though requested in September by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the decision to deploy the monitors came on 6 October at the meeting in Prague between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, European Council President Charles Michel, and French President Emmanuel Macron.
On 17 October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan addressed the European Parliament in Strasbourg. He was the first Armenian leader to do so. From the region, only then Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had done so in 2010. The invitation stemmed from last month’s blitzkrieg operation in Karabakh.
The suggestion followed Aliyev cancelling a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the European Political Community summit in Granada, Spain, on 5 October.
The idea was to create a win-win situation where Azerbaijan would not only connect to Nakhchivan but Armenia could potentially join the Middle Corridor transportation link from China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus, ending its semi-isolation and exclusion from regional energy and transportation projects.