Ten days ago, Transitions magazine published my latest on the European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA). Though the monitoring mission continues to be appreciated and welcomed in the country, there still remain overly high expectations of what is a small presence along a 1,000 kilometre border with no power or ability to deter any armed incidents or skirmishes.
Indeed, on the day of publication, four Armenian and three Azerbaijani soldiers were killed near the village of Tegh.
Today, 19 December 2022, the European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) ended its short two-month mission in Armenia. Deployed as a result of the 6 October Prague meeting between European Council President Charles Michel, French President Emmanuel Macron, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, its short mission coincided with apparent signals emanating from the 27 September meeting between senior Armenian and Azerbaijani officials in Washington D.C. that a peace deal between Yerevan and Baku could be signed by year’s end.
According to the Armenian Foreign Minister, Ararat Mirzoyan, the temporary European Union Monitoring Mission Capacity (EUMCAP) in Armenia will end on 20 December 2022. Requested by Mirzoyan on 22 September following fierce fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the border a week earlier, the decision to deploy came out the quadripartite meeting of the two leaders and European Council and French presidents, Charles Michel and Emmanuel Macron, in Prague on 6 October before being approved by EU member states on 17 October.
Less than a month and a half before the end of the year, hopes remain high for the normalisation of relations between Yerevan and Baku, and especially since the last round of negotiations held the United States. “I urged Prime Minister Pashinyan to sustain momentum on peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia following the foreign ministers’ talks in Washington on 7 November,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken tweeted on 16 November in a follow up call to the Armenian leader. Hours later he tweeted the same message, but this time addressed to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
The European Union has deployed around 40 unarmed civilian monitors on the Armenian side of the border with Azerbaijan following serious military escalation on 12-13 September, that saw the latter strike and capture territory within the former, leaving nearly 300 dead on both sides. Though requested in September by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the decision to deploy the monitors came on 6 October at the meeting in Prague between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, European Council President Charles Michel, and French President Emmanuel Macron.
Following the arrival of a technical assessment team to Armenia, a monitoring mission from the European Union today started patrolling the country’s border with Azerbaijan. The decision to deploy the 40 or so civilian monitors has been widely welcomed and applauded but it is important to realise what it is and what it isn’t. To begin with, or for now at least, it is not an indefinite presence in Armenia with a fixed term of just two months. That might seem short to many, but it’s also important to realise why.
Following the European Union’s announcement that it would send a 40-person civilian monitoring mission to the Armenian border with Azerbaijan for a maximum of two months, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan later surprised many by announcing that Yerevan was also discussing the deployment of observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation and Europe (OSCE). This declaration was made on 18 October during a press conference held in Yerevan alongside his Norwegian counterpart, Anniken Huitfeldt.
The European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Georgia is to temporarily deploy 40 of its civilian observers to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border for a maximum period of two months. The decision came during the 6 October meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, French President Emmanuel Macron, and European Council Charles Michel in Prague.
Depending on who you ask, Armenia and Azerbaijan are either moving closer towards signing a long overdue peace deal or Yerevan is under duress from Baku to capitulate further following its defeat in 2020. Both can be true, of course, but the reality is that there is only a limited window of opportunity available to reach such a negotiated settlement. Following the recent fighting on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, it seems the international community understands that only too well.
Though there had been hopes that some kind of agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be initialled or signed by November this year, the situation looks increasingly uncertain as Russia once again enters the fray.
Pressure on Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to deliver a peace agreement with Azerbaijan before the 2026 parliamentary elections is mounting, driven by questions surrounding the longevity of Armenian economic growth.
Pashinyan’s efforts to advance negotiations have seen both progress and setbacks. Unresolved issues, particularly those related to regional connectivity and the influence of external actors such as Iran, highlight the complexity of achieving a lasting resolution.
This month, against the backdrop of the Caucasus Mountains, a unique four-day festival in Georgia celebrated its tenth anniversary. Held annually in August, the multi-disciplinary One Caucasus festival aims to rediscover a spirit of unity and cooperation that once flourished among the diverse nations of the region.