Despite low expectations following the meeting late last month between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Sochi, another between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev held a day before the Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit in Brussels on 15 December can be largely assessed as successful. It marks the first direct engagement of the European Union in the Karabakh conflict despite over three decades of animosity that obstructed cooperation between the two in the EaP. Previously, the EU has largely confined its involvement to voicing support for the OSCE Minsk Group process.

The November 2020 Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan left many questions unanswered, not only in terms of its implementation but also in terms of whether the West has any role in any processes that might emerge. Not only were the US and European Union taken by surprise by last year’s war, but they have also largely remained marginalised or absent from developments since.