Arguably one of the most independent and unique voices on the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan for decades, Gerard Jirair Libaridian has been particularly on point since the end of the 2020 Karabakh war. Not only was he among the few of us that foresaw a new conflict between the two breaking out in the days and weeks preceding hostilities, but Libaridian was particularly concerned about such an eventuality, though it has to be said that these fears had been growing with each passing year since 2011.

Today marks the 28th anniversary of the 1994 ceasefire agreement that temporarily halted fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh. Coming into force at 12.01 am on 12 May 1994, its terms, as dictated by the 5 May Bishkek Protocol were nonetheless left unimplemented for decades, ultimately leading to the 2020 second Karabakh war.

Serzh Sargsyan, the Gray Cardinal of Armenian politics as he was often referred to back in the day, has spoken. It is unlikely that many Armenians will be hanging on his every word given that it’s only four years ago that street protests forced him out of office. The hand-picked successor to the far more ruthless and cynical Robert Kocharian, Sargsyan came to power in 2008 in contested presidential elections that left 10 people dead in post-election violence.