Yesterday, Artur Tovmasyan, defacto Speaker of Karabakh’s National Assembly, issued a statement calling on the Russian, French and U.S. Presidents to force Azerbaijan to allow an airlift from Armenia to the isolated region’s airport situated outside of Stepanakert. The remarks came after over three weeks of what are claimed to be environmental protests effectively blocking access to and from Karabakh on the Lachin Corridor.
On 3 August, 2022, following the death of an Azerbaijani conscript in clashes with local Armenian forces, Baku launched military operations in Karabakh on a scale not seen since the November 2020 ceasefire statement. Two Armenian soldiers were killed and 19 wounded in multiple Azerbaijani mortar and drone attacks while key strategic heights overlooking Karabakh were also captured. Days earlier, an Armenian soldier had been injured in the escalation that led up to the clashes.
Gegham Manukyan is a member of the Central Committee of the Dashnaktsutiune Armenian Revolutionary Federation in the Republic of Armenia. He was interviewed during festivities celebrating the twentieth anniversary of the Kurdistan Workers Party [PKK] organised by the Yezidi [Kurdish] community in Armenia, and staged at the Russian Theatre in Yerevan.
After months amassing troops on the border with Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the order to further into Ukrainian territory late last month. For the first time in two decades, full-scale war returned to the European continent, sending out shockwaves globally. Outrage was widespread and in a rare show of unity, even if unwilling or unable to intervene directly, the vast majority of UN member states condemned the Russian military action.
Having declined to attend a meeting of Euronest in Yerevan in 2015, the arrival of two Azerbaijani MPs, Tahir Mirkishili and Soltan Mammadov, in Armenia was the first in a decade. According to one regional analyst, their participation was an achievement. Some might well consider if this isn’t an important precedent for the resumption of other exchanges between the two countries following the 2020 Karabakh War.
Serzh Sargsyan, the Gray Cardinal of Armenian politics as he was often referred to back in the day, has spoken. It is unlikely that many Armenians will be hanging on his every word given that it’s only four years ago that street protests forced him out of office. The hand-picked successor to the far more ruthless and cynical Robert Kocharian, Sargsyan came to power in 2008 in contested presidential elections that left 10 people dead in post-election violence.
While the 9-point ceasefire agreement that ended fighting in the 2020 Karabakh War omits any direct reference to a comprehensive settlement of the conflict, there are nonetheless some elements that allude to the need for one. The seventh point in the agreement, for example, refers to the right of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to return not only to the seven previously occupied regions of Azerbaijan, but also to the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO).
Despite low expectations following the meeting late last month between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Sochi, another between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev held a day before the Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit in Brussels on 15 December can be largely assessed as successful. It marks the first direct engagement of the European Union in the Karabakh conflict despite over three decades of animosity that obstructed cooperation between the two in the EaP. Previously, the EU has largely confined its involvement to voicing support for the OSCE Minsk Group process.
Though the future remains unpredictable, last year’s war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno Karabakh changed the geographical and geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus after three decades of bitterness, conflict, and division.
In June, Baku reiterated its demand that any peace agreement must explicitly address changes in the Armenian Constitution, including the removal of what Azerbaijan and Türkiye perceive as territorial claims against them.
Despite progress between Armenia and Azerbaijan over border delimitation and demarcation, another issue threatens to hinder the signing of a long-awaited agreement to normalise relations. Baku now demands that Yerevan first removes from its constitution a controversial preamble referencing the 1990 Declaration of Independence.
Yerevan is entering its second month of protests against the border and delimitation process launched between Armenia and Azerbaijan in April. Relations between the Armenian Apostolic Church and the government have plummeted and may be irreconcilable.