As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be making some progress, the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations have begun to gain more traction. In April, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan described any breakthrough as “epoch-making” for the region. Toivo Klaar, EU special representative for the South Caucasus and Crisis in Georgia, told media he hoped talks would continue in the near future. Klaar was referring to negotiations that have been underway since December 2021 between former Turkish Ambassador Serdar Kılıç and Deputy Speaker of the Armenian National Assembly Ruben Rubinyan. Four meetings have been held so far, the last of which occurred in July 2022. The normalization of relations between Armenia and Türkiye is a crucial step towards achieving regional stability, particularly with regards to Azerbaijan, as Türkiye wields significant influence over the country. Therefore, establishing diplomatic ties between Ankara and Yerevan would not only benefit the overall stability of the region but also has the potential to ease tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
In Armenia, civil society remains skeptical of these developments given the previous stalemate. Armenians have grown wary due to the failure to partially open one of the two border crossings between Armenia and Türkiye for third-country citizens and diplomatic passport holders last year as had been agreed. This coincided with a difficult period in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations and a reigniting of hostilities. The two processes have been inextricably linked ever since Armenian forces occupied the Kelbajar region of Azerbaijan in 1993.
Ankara was among the first to recognize Yerevan’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. Soon after, however, Türkiye closed its border with Armenia over Kelbajar and did not establish diplomatic relations with Yerevan. Since the end of the Second Karabakh War in November 2020, that situation has changed territorially, but the political impasse has not.
Previous attempts to bring the sides together failed. In 2001, the Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation Commission, encouraged by the United States, attempted to do so but faced opposition from the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation–Dashnaktsutyun. Another opportunity came in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August 2008 when Türkiye suggested establishing a Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform for the region. Although Baku and Tbilisi rejected the idea, it marked the start of a new attempt at Armenian-Turkish normalization, as Türkiye would begin to take a larger role in stabilizing the region. Earlier, in September 2008, former Turkish President Abdullah Gül had already accepted an invitation from then-Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan to attend a World Cup qualifying soccer match between their national teams in Yerevan. Sargsyan also attended the return match in Bursa, Türkiye, the following year.
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Pashinyan is already being accused of making unilateral concessions to Azerbaijan. Thus, being accused of the same with regards to Türkiye is unthinkable, especially for ethnic Armenians active in diaspora communities abroad. In words that will hardly go down well with many, Erdoğan urged Armenia to change its narrative, warning that the “doors of opportunity” do not remain open forever. He called on Yerevan to work on what he termed a “realist roadmap” of relations. As cooperation with Russia has broken down, Armenia may have no choice but to accede on certain issues to normalize relations with its neighbors and become an active participant in regional projects.
The full analysis is available here.
