The prospect of peace in the South Caucasus may finally be within reach. Following the high-profile meeting between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House as facilitated by U.S. President Donald Trump on 8 August, hopes are rising that Yerevan and Baku could soon sign a long-anticipated peace treaty. That breakthrough has already been welcomed internationally, sparking renewed movement on the Armenia–Türkiye track as well. Opening the Armenian-Türkiye border has long been a policy objective for successive governments in Yerevan.
It is also considered essential not only for the landlocked and semi-isolated country to sufficiently improve its economy, but also to diversify policy in key areas such as security and energy. Many have argued that Armenia has been too reliant on Russia since independence was declared in 1991 while the belief Moscow would support Armenia militarily in its conflict with neighbouring Azerbaijan evaporated in 2020. As Yerevan and Baku edge closer to signing an already completed peace treaty, there are now hopes for similar between Yerevan and Ankara.
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For many, this momentum suggests that the border with Türkiye, closed since 1993 in solidarity with Azerbaijan, might finally reopen. But Ankara quickly tempered expectations. Following the meeting last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan again reiterated that normalization with Armenia would follow only after a peace deal with Baku. He nonetheless announced that such an agreement could come in the first half of next year, suggesting a possible breakthrough in 2026.
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Indeed, the signs are more encouraging than at any time in the past three decades. The Washington meeting has injected new momentum, and symbolic gestures such as the wives of the Armenian, Azerbaijani, and Turkish leaders posing together recently in China are accumulating. Whether this will culminate in treaties and open borders depends on whether all sides can overcome the final obstacles – constitutional amendments in Armenia, agreement on the terms sought by Azerbaijan for traveling through Armenia to its Nakhchivan exclave, and political will in Türkiye.
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