Yerevan is entering its second month of protests against the border and delimitation process launched between Armenia and Azerbaijan in April. Relations between the Armenian Apostolic Church and the government have plummeted and may be irreconcilable. Although Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan, Primate of the Tavush Diocese of the Armenian Apostolic Church, has dominated the media since April, his mass rallies have failed to attract sufficient numbers to pose a serious threat to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. In a household survey last month, only 12.8 percent of respondents said they would vote for Pashinyan’s Civil Contract Party if elections were held that week. Galstanyan’s name was second at 3.9 percent despite remaining ineligible. This division and lack of support for Pashinyan will likely result in further political strife in Armenia.
Most Armenians remain undecided or do not plan to participate in the upcoming elections. As a result, the combined support for the opposition now equals that of the embattled prime minister. Assuming the government does not benefit significantly from administrative resources when the vote occurs, the opposition may significantly prevent Pashinyan from maintaining his current majority government. Galstanyan insists that his “Tavush for the Motherland” movement is not coordinating with other political forces in the country and denies the involvement of former President Robert Kocharyan and Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II. The government alleges otherwise. Other commentators believe that Kocharyan and Karekin could simply be riding on Galstanyan’s coattails.
In May 2022, Galstanyan joined the political protests demanding Pashinyan’s resignation led by the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun; ARF-D) and with the full blessing of the Catholicos. The ARF-D is the main party in Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance faction in parliament. One of its deputies, Garnik Danielyan, has been by Galstanyan’s side since the beginning of the protests in Tavush. Other senior figures in Dashnaktsutyun, including party head Ishkhan Saghatelyan, attend some rallies but have tried to maintain a low profile. On May 25, Dashnaktsutyun convened a conference on the “Armenian Cause” in Yerevan, where Galstanyan and representatives of the Catholicos were in attendance.
The following day, a demonstration in the capital attracted 23,000 people. Although Galstanyan’s movement was waning, it had gained some lost momentum before the gathering by stating that a nomination to replace Pashinyan would be announced—that candidate being Galstanyan. He also announced that he had applied to the Armenian Apostolic Church to suspend his clerical duties so he could campaign against the current government. Yet, on May 21, Galstanyan has said publicly that he still meets with the Catholicos every two days.
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Meanwhile, despite failing to reach critical mass, Galstanyan continues to disrupt official events. His success in doing so without warning, including in Sardarapat, has put Pashinyan’s government on edge, eager to avoid any large clashes that the opposition could use against him. As the Armenian premier seeks to transform the country from “historical Armenia” to “real Armenia,” the conflict between the government and the church looks set to continue. As a sign of that, Civil Contract MP Arsen Torosyan proposed this week to stop financing Shoghakat TV, the broadcasting arm of the Armenian Apostolic Church, officially on air since 2002. Coincidentally intended personally or not, the station was established as an audio-visual studio by Karekin II before he became Catholicos in 1995.
The full analysis is available here.
