As diplomatic efforts to resolve the long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan once again make headlines, the real challenge lies not in high-level meetings or momentary gestures, but in the unfortunate disconnect between the elites and the populations they represent. For almost thirty years, press release after press release declared that talks inched towards peace. Hopes were premature. The sides will next month mark the anniversary of the last war fought five years ago.
On Monday, news broke that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will tomorrow meet U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. According to Alex Raufoglu, former D.C. correspondent for Turan, the two leaders are set to meet Trump separately before joining him to announce a declaration of intent to achieve peace. Ragip Soylu in Middle East Insight spoke of a memorandum of understanding. Others talk of some kind of framework.
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Despite high-level statements that peace has never been closer, there has still been almost no effort made to prepare the Armenian and Azerbaijani public for such an epoch-making settlement. People-to-people contact is virtually nonexistent, and positive media coverage by either side – or even internationally – is rare. With elections looming in Armenia, this will be particularly important for Pashinyan.
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Without broad public buy-in and societal resilience, any agreement or declaration risks falling apart. Sustainable peace requires more than handshakes. It requires the engagement and inclusion of those that will have to live it. That is the least that should be expected the day after. Trump, however, is also unpredictable and cavalier so the sides must be careful not to allow geopolitical interests to unnecessarily antagonise regional powers such as Russia and Iran.
The full piece is available here.
