Central Train Station, Yerevan, Armenia © Onnik James Krikorian 2007
For the first time in 31 years of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the situation feels more unpredictable than ever. In the past, there was a grim certainty that another war would erupt just as it did in September 2020 while peace, on the other hand, always seemed distant. In recent weeks, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that it was almost a done deal simply solicited disagreement among analysts and political commentators. As if that wasn’t confusion enough, and although both Baku and Yerevan have said that the 10 July meeting between the leaders in Abu Dhabi was constructive, another issue has emerged unexpectedly to distract and deflect attention.
What began seemingly as speculation by a prominent U.S. think tank on 1 July now appears to be gaining traction. Washington might have proposed that an American company manage any transit route from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, running through Armenia, as envisaged by the November 2020 ceasefire statement. The situation was further muddled by the article in question appearing more focused on the need for Washington to push Ankara to open its border in the north.
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Despite high-level statements that peace has never been closer, there has still been almost no effort made to prepare the Armenian and Azerbaijani public for such an epoch-making settlement. People-to-people contact is virtually nonexistent, and positive media coverage by either side – or even internationally – is rare. With elections looming in Armenia, this will be particularly important for Pashinyan.
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As one Azerbaijani host remarked in a panel discussion with an Armenian analyst recently, while the U.S. apparently speaks about the next 100 years, the South Caucasus doesn’t know what even the next six months will bring. The way the apparent U.S. proposal was presented has only confused the situation further. Replete with denial after contradiction until semi-confirmation, nobody seems to know for sure. When asked about the proposal last week, a senior U.S. State Department official simply told media they should approach the White House.
The full piece is available here.
