Four years after the start of the 44-day-war between Armenia and Azerbaijan and a year since the exodus of 100,000 ethnic Armenians from the separatist Nagorno Karabakh region, hopes that there could be another opportunity to resolve the conflict are fading.
Though Yerevan, supported by France and the United States, believe that one is possible before November, Baku maintains that no final agreement can be signed until what it considers to be territorial claims, albeit referenced indirectly, in the Armenian constitution are removed. Yerevan disputes this and instead alleges that it is Azerbaijan that makes such claims on its territory.
Regardless, this also makes November a pivotal month to finally hammer out a deal or at least make significant progress on one. On 5 November, the United States will hold presidential elections that could either lead to continuity or change in its policy towards the region.
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What is clear, however, is that the coming weeks before November could demonstrate whether a peace agreement comes before Armenia enters its next election cycle starting next year.
Yerevan certainly seems restless in case Moscow attempts to interfere. On 18 September, Yerevan announced that it had prevented an attempted armed coup by Armenian citizens and former Karabakh residents allegedly trained in Russia. On 20 September, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova reminded Yerevan of how it benefits as a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.
“90 percent of grain that goes to Armenia […] comes from Russia. Perhaps then you can contact the Russian Federation […] to discuss your food security”, she stated. And with Armenia also reliant on Russia for its energy, former U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE Daniel Baer and Senior Vice President at the Carnegie Endowment voiced an ominous note at a recent congressional hearing. “Armenians must be prepared to endure some cold winters”, he said.
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