Under the watchful eyes of the United States and Russia, Armenia and Turkey have finally signed two protocols which many hope will see the normalization of relations between the two neighbouring countries.
As the international community applauds the presidents of Armenia and Turkey for making unprecedented progress in attempts to normalize relations, others are not so ecstatic. Indeed, while many consider the establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening of borders between the two estranged neighbours as crucial in establishing peace and stability in the region, opposition to such a development was always going to materialize from some political forces within Armenia as well as its other foe, Turkish ally Azerbaijan.
In what could possibly prove to be a milestone in relations between the Republics of Armenia and Turkey, Yerevan today sent five trucks carrying 100 tons of humanitarian assistance to its neighbour following last week’s devastating earthquake. The aid was destined for the southeastern Turkish city of Adiyaman.
At time of writing, the number of fatalities from the tragedy, which reached a magnitude of 7.8, has already surpassed 21,000 with over 80,000 injured. A state of emergency in Turkey has been declared.
Though it had been announced in early December that direct cargo flights would start between Armenia and Turkey by the end of last year, the apparent deadlock in the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, as well as the impasse between Yerevan, Baku, and Stepanakert on the Lachin Corridor, hardly prepared anyone for such an eventuality. However, a news report published by the Andalou News Agency on 6 January 2023 confirmed that Ankara had indeed given the go-ahead for such flights starting 1 January.
Depending on who you ask, Armenia and Azerbaijan are either moving closer towards signing a long overdue peace deal or Yerevan is under duress from Baku to capitulate further following its defeat in 2020. Both can be true, of course, but the reality is that there is only a limited window of opportunity available to reach such a negotiated settlement. Following the recent fighting on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, it seems the international community understands that only too well.
While not necessarily a historic moment, the resumption of direct flights between Yerevan and Turkey are a welcome development, especially following the 2020 Karabakh war. Though not new for both countries, this reconnection is largely been seen as part of post-war attempts to unblock regional economic and transport links as part of the 2020 November ceasefire agreement and a resulting, renewed attempt to normalise Armenia-Turkey relations.
Serzh Sargsyan, the Gray Cardinal of Armenian politics as he was often referred to back in the day, has spoken. It is unlikely that many Armenians will be hanging on his every word given that it’s only four years ago that street protests forced him out of office. The hand-picked successor to the far more ruthless and cynical Robert Kocharian, Sargsyan came to power in 2008 in contested presidential elections that left 10 people dead in post-election violence.
Despite low expectations following the meeting late last month between the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders in Sochi, another between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and President Ilham Aliyev held a day before the Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit in Brussels on 15 December can be largely assessed as successful. It marks the first direct engagement of the European Union in the Karabakh conflict despite over three decades of animosity that obstructed cooperation between the two in the EaP. Previously, the EU has largely confined its involvement to voicing support for the OSCE Minsk Group process.
Nationalist and ultra-nationalist narratives increasingly resemble those disseminated by violent extremist groups. Not only can themes be similar, but so too are the ways in which they are amplified and disseminated online via different mediums and platforms. They also target specific demographic groups, but there are few if any attempts to address or effectively counter them. This is especially true in the South Caucasus.
Earlier this month, Tbilisi celebrated Tbilisoba, the city’s annual harvest festival. Over the years it has changed significantly and seems smaller than before. I first covered the event in 2011 but the best so far remains 2014 when there was more representation of traditional Georgian folk dance and music as well as by ethnic minorities such as the Armenian and Azerbaijani communities. This year, that was held relatively far away from Tbilisi’s Old Town and Rike Park with very little publicity or in some media any at all. Nonetheless, those that attended appeared to enjoy themselves sufficiently and I managed to photo stories.
As this year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku draws closer, negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan appear to be drifting further apart. Despite hopes that the opposite would be true, a lack of clarity and confusion instead continues to reign. Does the draft Agreement on Peace and Establishment of Interstate Relations contain 17 points or 16? Initially, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had announced that consensus had been reached on 13 points while 3 were partially agreed and there was no agreement at all on a fourth.
Last month, Armenia arrested several individuals accused of recruiting others to stage a coup in the country. The group has a history of recruiting Armenian citizens as foreign fighters in Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The Armenian government faces a potential vulnerability from militant groups as progress occurs in the normalization process with Azerbaijan following the 2020 44-day war and recent conflict in Karabakh, fueling discontent among many Armenians.