Georgian-Azerbaijani Communities Embrace Novruz

Georgian-Azerbaijani Communities Embrace Novruz

Novruz festival in Tbilisi’s Old Town @ Onnik James Krikorian 2024

The weather this year was not the greatest for the annual Novruz celebration among Georgia’s ethnic Azerbaijani community. However, there was still no end of events to mark the occasion, which is also celebrated in Iran, Central Asia, Türkiye, the South Caucasus, and elsewhere, though traditions may vary. Perhaps it was global warming that disrupted the weather this year, but even if many events had to be moved indoors, some were more fortunate.

That was certainly the case for an event in the area around the Sulphur Baths in Tbilisi’s Old Town. Blessed with sunny weather, large crowds assembled in the Abanotubani area that featured a stage and tents and stalls representing Iran, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Türkiye. The event was supported by the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in Georgia, the Mirza Fatali Akhundzade Museum of Azerbaijani Culture, and the Council of Azerbaijani Elders in Georgia.

 

The Ambassadors of Azerbaijan and Türkiye, Faig Guliyev and Ali Kaan Orbay, were present, as were their counterparts from Iran, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.

The full piece with more photographs is here

Novruz in Georgia @ Onnik James Krikorian 2024

 

 

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Armenia and Azerbaijan Ponder Return of Non-Enclave Gazakh Villages

Armenia and Azerbaijan Ponder Return of Non-Enclave Gazakh Villages

It was almost comical at first but also unexpectedly symbolic. Known for his trademark populism and oratory skills honed to resonate with the masses, it was perhaps the most effective way for Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, to illustrate to the population the actual borders of their country. Holding a golden cutout map of Armenia to one side and, at times, a minuscule representation of the tiny Armenian enclave of Artsvashen in Azerbaijan to the other, his live press conference on 12 March was direct and to the point.

For decades, many Armenians have viewed the country as encompassing not only the now-defunct Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) but also the seven surrounding regions of Azerbaijan proper. In early 2020, Pashinyan even included the same irredentist map of a territorial area that had been taken back or returned during and immediately after the 44-day war with Azerbaijan later that same year. In September, the previously de facto but unrecognized Karabakh political entity dissolved itself following a military operation to disarm the local militia.  

 

For decades, many Armenians have viewed the country as encompassing not only the now-defunct Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) but also the seven surrounding regions of Azerbaijan proper. In early 2020, Pashinyan even included the same irredentist map of a territorial area that had been taken back or returned during and immediately after the 44-day war with Azerbaijan later that same year. In September, the previously de facto but unrecognized Karabakh political entity dissolved itself following a military operation to disarm the local militia.

 

The situation has dramatically changed since and the press conference hinted at what might happen next in the complicated process of demarcating and delimiting the shared border. The press conference came just two days after Baku demanded the immediate return of four non-enclave Azerbaijani villages situated in its Gazakh region bordering Armenia that were occupied in the early 1990s. Previously, the focus had been on enclaves—territorial areas of both republics physically situated within and surrounded by the other.

 

On the other hand, non-enclave villages are simply those part of a country occupied by another. In his press conference, Pashinyan finally acknowledged that they are not part of the Republic of Armenia and cast some clarity on the issue.

 

[…] 

 

“In the near future, we must take action, and where, for example, our communications are beyond our borders, we must reconstruct our communications in those areas so that all communications of Armenia pass through the de jure territory of Armenia,” he noted. According to some unconfirmed reports, that process has already started, and Pashinyan has also said he will visit the area in question to address any concerns of the local community.

 The full Caspian Post article can be read here

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European Union Mission in Armenia Marks First Anniversary

European Union Mission in Armenia Marks First Anniversary

European Union Mission in Armenia Head of Mission Markus Ritter speaking in Yerevan on 21 February to mark the deployment’s first anniversary © Onnik James Krikorian 2024

The European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) marked the first anniversary of its deployment on the country’s border with Azerbaijan last week. To celebrate the occasion, an event attended by Western Ambassadors, Armenian government officials including Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan, and some members of local civil society was held in a central Yerevan hotel. Thirty civilian unarmed mission monitors wearing blue mission vests were awarded Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) Service medals by EUMA Head of Mission (HoM) Markus Ritter. The former German police chief reiterated the mission’s aim to contribute to the normalisation of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.

Deployed on 20 February 2023, EUMA followed the much shorter term two-month European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) that temporarily monitored the Armenia-Azerbaijan border from October 2022. Initially numbering “up to 100” staff when EUMA was first announced, that number has since risen to 138 and will reach 209. At the anniversary event, Ritter said that 48 of its current staff are actual monitors operating from bases in Goris, Ijevan, Jermuk, Kapan, Martuni, and Yeghegnadzor, also the mission’s headquarters. To date EUMA has conducted over 1,720 patrols.

 

“Reinforcing the Mission and increasing the number of staff enables us to conduct more patrols, contributing to overall security and stability in the region”, said Ritter. “We are conducting daily patrols to observe and report the situation on the ground. On this special day, I want to acknowledge the valuable work of the Mission’s personnel and thank the 23 EU Member States who are contributing staff to the mission”.

 

[…]

 

Nonetheless, Azerbaijan’s Representative for Special Assignments Elchin Amirbayov also blamed  EUMA for making such incidents more likely. Baku has long accused EUMA of engaging in what it terms “binocular diplomacy”, taking European diplomats to the still problematic border to look at “Azerbaijani positions through binoculars, taking photos and then distributing this on different social media and claiming that it is because only of [the EU] that Azerbaijan is not attacking Armenia”. Last week, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed a new war was ‘very likely’.

 

Despite the controversies, however, EUMA’s presence is considered a much-needed confidence-building measure in Armenia, especially for communities situated on its border with Azerbaijan. “I am sure that the EU monitoring mission is bringing an important contribution to Armenia and the region, which symbolises the EU’s involvement for peace and stability”, CSDP commander Tomat said at the anniversary event. “I’m fully aware of the limits of what we can accomplish in such a delicate and complex environment”, noted Ritter.

The full article is here

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Conflict Voices – December 2010

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Conflict Voices – May 2011

Short essays on the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
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Pashinyan Reignites Constitutional Reform Debate Amid Declining Ratings

Pashinyan Reignites Constitutional Reform Debate Amid Declining Ratings

On January 18, six years after the street protests that brought him to power in 2018, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan raised the issue of reforming the country’s constitution during a meeting with the Armenian Ministry of Justice. The constitution was originally introduced under Levon Ter-Petrosyan in 1995 and controversially amended under his successors, Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan. Pashinyan stated that constitutional reforms are needed to make Armenia “more competitive in the new geopolitical environment.” The opposition claims that talk of constitutional reform comes under pressure from Azerbaijan in the stalled peace talks. Earlier, the Armenian premier claimed that constitutional reforms would give Yerevan a more stable position in negotiations with Baku.

Pashinyan’s initial efforts to hold a referendum to amend the constitution in April 2020 were indefinitely postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the declaration of a state of emergency in Armenia (Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, March 16, 2020). As a result, a crucial amendment to strip constitutional court judges appointed under previous governments passed with a two-thirds majority in the Armenian National Assembly without a popular referendum (JAMnews, June 3, 2020). The opposition charged that the move was unconstitutional as the referendum could have been rescheduled to a later date.

  

The push for extensive constitutional reforms has remained a priority for the current Armenian government. After the canceled referendum, Pashinyan noted that the population did not trust the existing constitution in July 2020. He argued that a new constitution should be drafted and released for public discussion, with a referendum scheduled for the following year (Azatutyun.am, July 5, 2020). Armenia’s defeat in the Second Karabakh War in late 2020, however, postponed the referendum again in favor of snap parliamentary elections (Azatutyun.am, June 24, 2021).

 

[…]

 

At the heart of the matter is the inclusion of a preamble in successive constitutions directly referring to the 1990 Armenian Declaration of Independence. That document emphasizes the 1989 joint declaration on the “Reunification of the Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic and the Mountainous Region of Karabakh” (Parliament of the Republic of Armenia, accessed January 24). It also refers to “achieving international recognition of the 1915 genocide in Ottoman Turkey and Western Armenia.”

 

[…]

 

The extensive reforms to the Armenian Constitution come with key geopolitical implications. On the one hand, removing some of the territorial claims could facilitate real progress in peace talks. On the other hand, potentially doing so at the behest of Baku would do little to infuse public confidence in the new constitution. The reforms that Yerevan does agree on and the way they are implemented will undoubtedly have a significant impact on prospects for peace and stability in the South Caucasus.

The full piece can be read online here.

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Conflict Voices – December 2010

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Conflict Voices – May 2011

Short essays on the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
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Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow Clash Over Regional Transit

Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow Clash Over Regional Transit

In my first piece for The Jamestown Foundation, I again look at the continuing geopolitical impasse on attempts to restore economic and  transport links in the region following the 2020 Armenia-Azerbaijan war as per the trilateral ceasefire statement that ended it.  This is a topic that I’ve covered consistently since the beginning of 2021 but it has particularly come to a head now as hopes for a framework agreement between Baku and Yerevan persist. 

On January 18, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed frustration about the endless delays in peace negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia during his annual press conference in Moscow (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, January 18). Despite hopes that an agreement to normalize relations could be within reach, progress remains stunted by several outstanding issues increasingly entangled in competing geopolitical interests (see EDM, December 18, 2022). This is most evident in the failure to unblock regional economic and transit ties following the Second Karabakh War in 2020. Harsh rhetoric from both Yerevan and Baku shows no sign of abating and threatens to derail the peace process (see EDM, January 24).

 

Key differences remain between Azerbaijan and Armenia on implementing the trilateral agreement ending the Second Karabakh War. According to the ninth point of the November 2020 ceasefire statement signed by Yerevan, Baku, and Moscow, “all economic and transport connections in the region” should be unblocked, including those between the “western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic” (Kremlin.ru, November 10, 2020). The agreement also states that the transit of people, vehicles, and cargo should be “unhindered,” while Russian border guards would be “responsible for overseeing the transport connections.” As Yerevan increasingly turns its gaze toward the West and the European Union and the United States seek to diminish Russia’s role in the South Caucasus, Armenia continues to show reluctance in fulfilling its commitments. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is growing increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress since 2020, specifically concerning the restoration of its Soviet-era connection via Armenian territory to the Nakhchivan exclave.

 

This is a far cry from more recent trilateral statements signed by the three countries in 2021. Those agreements initially reaffirmed a commitment to unblocking transit corridors, with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan openly declaring that there was a “common understanding of how the routes will operate” (Kremlin.ru, November 26, 2021). Not one route, however, has been restored, and no reinstitution of the Soviet-era Nakhchivan line running through Armenia’s Syunik region (also known as Zangezur) has taken place.

 

[…]

 

Concrete details on unblocking regional transit routes could be omitted from any framework agreement to normalize relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The danger here, however, is that further delays could lead to future conflict if transportation issues are left unresolved. Azerbaijan hopes to complete its section of the Zangezur Corridor by the end of 2024. Baku has warned that, until the direct link to Nakhchivan is established, it will not unblock any other passages between Armenia and Azerbaijan (Trend, January 10).

The full analysis is available here

 

CONFLICT VOICES e-BOOKS

 

Conflict Voices – December 2010

Short essays on the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
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Conflict Voices – May 2011

Short essays on the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict
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