Azerbaijan and Karabakh Talk Integration as Partial Evacuation Starts

Azerbaijan and Karabakh Talk Integration as Partial Evacuation Starts

Yevlakh meeting between Karabakh representatives and Baku 

Following the 20 September agreement mediated by the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh, talks have taken place in Yevlakh between Azerbaijan’s delegation and representatives of the region’s ethnic Armenian population. They came a day after Baku said a military operation to disarm and dissolve separatist ethnic Armenian units had achieved its aims.

Talks between the sides are not new, but previous meetings held in March in Khojaly broke down after Karabakh’s representatives refused to discuss the region’s reintegration into Azerbaijan. They also rejected offers to meet in Baku and Yevlakh, citing security concerns and again refusing to discuss integration.

 

This time, however, geographically, and politically isolated, as well as militarily defeated, Karabakh had little choice but to agree. For Baku, the talks were essential given that separatist forces, it says, posed a threat to the return of Azerbaijani Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from the early 1990s to their former homes, now being rebuilt in the seven surrounding regions.

 

At the time of writing, as part of the agreements reached, the Russian Ministry of Defence says that the Karabakh Armenians have already handed over 6 armored vehicles, more than 800 guns, and around 5,000 rounds of ammunition to its peacekeeping contingent.

 

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Karabakh agrees to integration talks with Azerbaijan

Karabakh agrees to integration talks with Azerbaijan

Karintak, Nagorno Karbakh  © Onnik James Krikorian 1994

On 19 September, following the death of seven Azerbaijanis in two separate incidents with landmines that Baku claims were laid by Armenian sabotage groups, fighting has once again broken out in the South Caucasus. In what Baku terms a “counter-terrorism operation” targeting ethnic Armenian separatist forces in what remains of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO), some suspect the incident was simply a pretext for wrestling back control of the breakaway region.

For several weeks there had already been concerns that Azerbaijan had been amassing troops and military equipment along the line of contact with Karabakh despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers. The contingent had been deployed as part of a November 2020 ceasefire agreement with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

 

Indeed, in recent weeks there had also been serious concerns that separate parallel peace processes to end the conflict, facilitated or mediated by Russia, the European Union, and the United States, had faltered. A particular obstacle had been the inability of the sides to agree on any mechanism to discuss the rights and security of the ethnic Armenian population of the disputed region as part of Azerbaijan proper.

 

Though Armenia has acknowledged this likelihood, the de facto leadership in Karabakh had been more resistant, though there had been signs of progress. On 1 September, its de facto president resigned, leading to a successor being chosen by the national assembly rather than by popular vote, and an agreement was brokered by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to open roads for humanitarian aid.through Azerbaijan’s Lachin and Aghdam regions.

 

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Renewed Fighting Overshadows Humanitarian Aid Reaching Karabakh via Lachin and Aghdam 

Renewed Fighting Overshadows Humanitarian Aid Reaching Karabakh via Lachin and Aghdam 

In what was termed a ‘counterterrorism operation’ by the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence, fighting again resumed with ethnic Armenian forces entrenched in the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO). This followed earlier reports of seven deaths caused by landmines allegedly laid by Armenian sabotage groups on territory under Baku’s control. The Azerbaijani MoD said it responded by launching surgical strikes against military targets within Karabakh.

Ever since the November 2020 trilateral ceasefire statement, Azerbaijan has accused Karabakh of hosting forces from the Republic of Armenia, a claim Yerevan denies. Nonetheless, the military action followed clear signs that parallel peace processes could be close to collapse, with issues such as the disarming and transformation of the Karabakh military still remaining unresolved. Further, attempts to organize talks between representatives of the Karabakh Armenians and Baku continue to falter.

 

Though military action had been expected, it nonetheless came as a surprise to many, given recent developments that had offered at least a glimmer of hope.

 

Following the 12 September delivery of humanitarian assistance by the Russian Red Cross Society via Aghdam into territory temporarily under the control of the Russian peacekeeping contingent inhabited mainly by ethnic Armenians, another two trucks delivered more just five days later. This time, however, the vehicles were those from the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and passed simultaneously via both the Lachin and Aghdam roads.

 

[…] 

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Armenian and Azerbaijani experts and analysts should articulate a common vision for the future of the Karabakh Armenians

Armenian and Azerbaijani experts and analysts should articulate a common vision for the future of the Karabakh Armenians

Stepanakert, Nagorno Karabakh © Onnik James Krikorian 1994

It is now time for Armenian and Azerbaijani analysts and political scientists to elaborate potential models for integration in unison. Though Baku says it already has a plan, no details are known or even if it exists at all. And even if it does, then Armenian and Azerbaijani civil society could have suggestions and recommendations.

[…] there are plenty of models for the integration of conflicting ethnic and/or religious groups in conflict zones to consider. Though none can simply be imported and transposed from outside, they could at least be considered as base frameworks for further discussion. There is also the 1997 package peace proposal that offers an insight into what a future arrangement looked like in the past, though the situation has of course markedly changed since.

 

True, it is unlikely that the sides will agree fully and more probable that they won’t, but there could be space for identifying some areas of mutual benefit where consensus can be reached. Until then, it is unimaginable to consider how any integration progress can occur without a transition period that could take years even in a best-case scenario. The divisions are that deep and the issues that complex.

 

It is difficult to imagine, for example, that a Karabakh Armenian could be expected to serve in the Azerbaijani army anytime soon, and nor would Baku likely want to provide them access to military-grade weaponry. At the same time, the free and secure movement of ethnic Armenians and Azerbaijanis around the territory of Azerbaijan, including Karabakh, is hardly likely in the short-term.

 

[…] 

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New Route Opens to Supply Aid to Karabakh Amid Lachin Impasse

New Route Opens to Supply Aid to Karabakh Amid Lachin Impasse

© Official Photo

On 12 September, after nearly months of not receiving any, humanitarian assistance finally arrived in Karabakh, albeit not without controversy. Having crossed the border between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation three days earlier, it was meant to travel from Samur to Askeran via Baku, Barda, and Aghdam. However, it remained delayed for days as some wondered whether it would ever arrive at all.

But arrive it did, carrying humanitarian assistance comprising food items, medicines, hygienic goods, and blankets in a single truck sent by the Russian Red Cross Society. Ethnic Armenians in Askeran on the Line of Contact (LoC) between that part of Karabakh under the control of Russian peacekeepers and Azerbaijan proper had initially vowed not to let it pass but eventually acquiesced.

 

However, two trucks of the Azerbaijan Red Crescent remain stuck in limbo. On the Armenian side of the border with Azerbaijan, at least 21 trucks sent by Yerevan and two from France also remain parked. However, Baku’s approval for receiving them was not requested as is normal for humanitarian assistance.

 

Nonetheless, the agreement on delivering humanitarian assistance sent from Russia came the same day as Samvel Shahramanyan was s/elected as de facto president of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) following Arayik Harutyunyan’s resignation on 1 September. The day after the eventual arrival of the Red Cross Society truck, the European Union effectively welcomed the move even despite being at loggerheads with Russia over Ukraine.

 

[…] 

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